The one where Nvidia beats earnings, BP pivots, and Anthropic got cheap |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 27th in 3:12 minutes.

  1. Nvidia lived up to increasingly lofty expectations – and the AI darling set the bar high for this quarter, too
  2. The big conundrum: pay down the mortgage… or invest – Read Now
  3. BP announced an about-turn back into the polluting oil and gas business

🧘‍♀️ Your yoga instructor can only do so much. Join us for Your Guide To Flexible ISAs if you're a UK resident on April 8th, and find out how to really make your money stretch further. Grab your free ticket

Super Huang
Super Huang

What’s going on here?

It’s a bird… It’s a plane... It’s Nvidia’s earnings flying beyond expectations again.

What does this mean?

Nvidia made 3% more revenue than analysts expected last quarter, while profit beat projections by 6%. That had a lot to do with the tech company’s new Blackwell AI chips. Nvidia described demand for them as “amazing”, contributing some $11 billion to its $39 billion of sales last quarter.

This financial year’s shaping up nicely so far, too: Nvidia thinks it’ll bring in some $42 billion of revenue. And although those Blackwell chips will lower its gross margins by more than analysts thought, the firm’s overall profit could still land a little higher than predicted this quarter – all else equal.

Why should I care?

For markets: Do that, but every quarter for the next decade.

Nvidia is expensive by almost every metric. But, like forking out for business class flights or a pure silk shirt, you might be able to justify the cost if the AI darling proves itself as a cut above the rest. So far, so good then, with the better-than-expected quarter it just reported. But Nvidia needs to grow at least 30% a year on average for the next decade to justify its current share price. Any sign of disruption to that trajectory could lead to a sharp selloff.

The bigger picture: DeepSeek and you shall find a risk.

Investors have two main concerns about Nvidia right now. One: DeepSeek’s efficient AI systems could reduce the number of chips needed. Then again, if cheaper models mean more folk use the tools, DeepSeek’s impact could expand the entire market – keeping Nvidia’s sales on track. Two: recent reports of Microsoft canceling its data center contracts could signal that Big Tech’s shrinking its big-bet budget. That said, Microsoft might just be spending differently, not less. The firm could simply be planning to use Oracle's data centers as part of their partnership rather than its own.

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👀 Find out what Nvidia’s really worth

Nvidia’s fourth-quarter report was solid. No surprise there. But what comes next will matter even more.

The AI poster child has promised to deliver: next quarter is on track to bring in more revenue than analysts expected.

But now, eyeballs are straying to Nvidia’s margins. The new chips push the envelope, but they’re less profitable – and that’s a risk.

That risk will show up in the stock’s valuation. Here’s how to put all of that together to find out what Nvidia’s really worth.

Read or listen to the Research Drop

Find Out What Nvidia's Worth
TODAY'S INSIGHT

The Mortgage Dilemma: Pay It Off Early Or Invest Your Money?

Theodora Lee Joseph, CFA

The Mortgage Dilemma: Pay It Off Early Or Invest Your Money?

On the homeowning scene, the past few years have been a kind of financial whiplash.

In the early 2020s, banks were practically giving money away – with rates as low as 1%. But all that changed.

Central banks responded to a rush of ultra-high inflation by aggressively hiking interest rates, sending borrowing costs soaring.

Now, as some countries start to ease rates, a key question is back on the table: is it better to use spare cash to pay off your mortgage early or invest the money elsewhere?

That’s today’s Insight: the pros, the cons, and a checklist to help you solve the mortgage dilemma.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Pivot!
Pivot!

What’s going on here?

BP announced a turnaround from its previous renewable energy pledges on Wednesday – and this time, there was no need to yell.

What does this mean?

In a stunning twist that no one could’ve predicted, Big Oil shareholders decided money must come first. So, determined to drill up more of the slippery sludge, BP said it’ll increase its annual oil and gas spending by 20% to $10 billion in the next couple of years. That should put it on track to produce 2.5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030. And all BP had to sacrifice was, well, Mother Nature. To fund the moneymaking plot, the oil giant will slash its annual renewable energy spending by 70% to around $1.5 billion, as well as sell off a bunch of business segments to raise $20 billion and trim its share buyback program.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: So much for activism.

Elliott Investment Management is one of the shareholders whispering in BP’s ear. That’s on brand: activist investors like Elliott buy up big stakes in companies and use that sway to influence strategic decisions, with the aim of making shareholders more money. So assuming BP’s switch-up proves lucrative, Elliott may take part of the credit. But that claim could be contended: governments and companies have recently shifted to favoring fossil fuel production over green initiatives, so BP might’ve dumped the do-gooding soon anyway.

For markets: They do say change comes from the bottom up.

BP’s pivot probably won’t scare off institutional investors – even those that care about the earth beneath our feet. See, they tend to push for change from within rather than ditching a company outright. And in fairness, BP’s green-minded budget is still in the billions. But retail investors are more judgmental: 42% said they’d avoid a profitable opportunity if it didn’t align with their values.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"A cloudy day is no match for a sunny disposition."

– William Arthur Ward (an American motivational writer)
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🎯 On Our Radar

1. David Bowie was onto something. This laser device could tell us if there was ever life on Mars.

2. Like the Truman Show, but with tech CEOs in charge. Here's everything you need to know about investing in the metaverse.

3. Say goodbye to working from bed – and your privacy, while you’re at it. Your boss wants you in the office, and they won’t hesitate to use surveillance.

4. Great things come in small packages. Micro futures could have a big impact on your portfolio... if you know how to use 'em.

5. DeepSeek welcomed tech’s cost-conscious era. Anthropic’s latest model was cheap as high-tech chips compared to OpenAI’s.

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