Apocalypse Soon: A weekly reckoning with life in a warming world—and the fight to save it

A weekly reckoning with life in a warming world—and the fight to save it

The receiving station of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline near Lubmin, Germany

Sean Gallup/Getty

What will Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine mean for climate change? Once upon a time, this sort of question would get you laughed out of the room in a foreign policy discussion in Washington. But today, with more and more people aware of the emissions crisis the world faces, that’s no longer the case.

 

As news broke on Tuesday that Putin had ordered forces to separatist regions of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also made headlines by announcing Germany was putting certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is intended to carry gas from western Russia to Germany’s Baltic coast, on hold. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has never made much sense, given Germany’s stated energy priorities and its participation in the Paris Agreement. As Edna Bonhomme wrote for TNR in 2020, “Germany’s green initiatives are widely considered a model for green energy policy.” But the pipeline has drawn protests from the country’s environmentalists and its Green Party. “It’s not clear that this pipeline meets any urgent demand,” Edna wrote at the time. “The German Ministry of Economic Affairs admitted in early November that German gas consumption has decreased over the last several years.”

 

Putting Nord Stream 2 on hold is good news, in theory. But now the question is whether U.S. gas companies will also move to replace Russian infrastructure with their own.

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Kate Aronoff writes about this problem today in Apocalypse Soon. The United States has long promoted its own gas exports as a way for Western Europe to become less dependent on Russian gas, and American lawmakers rushed to enshrine that priority in the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act last month. Now, as the conflict escalates, and with both global and domestic gas prices already high, fossil fuel companies are preparing for a windfall, Kate writes:

​​The fossil fuel industry itself seems almost giddy at the prospect of further disruption; escalating tensions have already helped it fetch high prices abroad and a privileged audience with U.S. and European governments, according to recent reporting from The Wall Street Journal. In the next few months, the conflict could lead U.S. and EU authorities to greenlight long-term contracts with European buyers as well as new infrastructure at home and abroad. Several projects are already moving ahead stateside. The gas exporter Tellurian—where Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s senior adviser for energy security, worked until shortly before joining the Biden administration—seems eager to make the unusually risky move to proceed with building its Driftwood LNG terminal on the Gulf Coast without having secured all the necessary financing. The decision could signal the company’s confidence that high prices and a tight market will deliver what it needs to reach completion.

The best way to help Europe reach energy independence, Kate argues, would be to make big investments in energy efficiency and renewables, rather than locking in fossil fuel infrastructure that will keep Europe dependent on gas. Expect U.S. companies, however, to fight that every step of the way.

 

—Heather Souvaine Horn, deputy editor

 

Good News

A new study has shown the disastrous Texas blackouts last year could be prevented in the future by switching to 100 percent renewable energy. (Unfortunately, a handful of Republican legislators across the Southwest are now trying to make it harder to invest in renewables.)

Bad News

A new U.N. report says we are facing a “global wildfire crisis” that will see a 14 percent increase in wildfires in the next eight years, and a 30 percent increase by 2050. Read The Guardian’s writeup here.

Elsewhere in the Ecosystem

The New York Times is doing a cool series on peatlands, which serve as huge and underappreciated carbon sinks. Check out its illustrated explainer or this lengthy feature on peatlands in the Congolese rain forest, where local villagers, foreign researchers, and illicit loggers are locked in a struggle complicated by the legacies of Western colonialism, exploitation, and poverty. Here’s an excerpt:

The villages and their needs had never attracted any outside attention. Now they had attention, but on the mud, not the people. Nonetheless, Tout Va Bien saw a way out of poverty for Penzele in the world’s concern with keeping carbon in the ground. They had leverage now.

 

“If we cut down the trees, the peatlands will let go of their carbon and it will destroy the world,” he said, and he paused long enough for an ominous crack of thunder to ring out across the rainforest. “So if we don’t cut them down, what can we expect from the world in return?” ...

 

Both villages—and others across the region—felt as if they were being asked by people far better off than them to make sacrifices to protect the peatlands. So who should pay?

Ruth Maclean and Caleb Kabanda| The New York Times

 

What Subscribers Are Reading

Americans have heard conflicting advice from various public health agencies during this pandemic. The solution begins with local reform.

by Eleanor Cummins

 

Climate change is ravaging the American West. Lawmakers in those states, meanwhile, want to punish any bank that pulls money from the fossil fuel companies contributing to that climate change.

by Kate Aronoff

 

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