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Tuesday, July 6, 2021 |
While certain pitchers continued to regress this weekend (you know who you are), we also had a bunch take big steps forward. For example, Kenta Maeda had his best start of the season, keeping the Royals off the board with 10 strikeouts to just one walk. It was his first quality start since April 7. Maeda has been a far cry from last season's version, but maybe this start will act as a launching pad. He mentioned he was attacking hitters in the zone more in this start, which was reflected by a season-high first-pitch strike percentage. |
Alek Manoah hasn't underwhelmed to the same point as Maeda this season, but his expectations weren't nearly as high, either. "The Mountain" Manoah resembled just that when he struck out 10 Tampa Bay Rays over seven shutout innings. He finished with a whopping 23 swinging strikes in this start. Manoah will have ups and downs as a fly-ball pitcher in Buffalo, but if the ups look like this, we'll take it! |
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Will Cole get back to the SP1 range? |
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I grabbed Yankees SP Gerrit Cole at the 1.12 spot in this past weekend's two-round redraft, and if that were for a real league I might now be panicking. On Sunday, Cole just didn't have it against the Mets, lasting just 3 1/3 innings and allowing six hits, four runs, three walks and striking out just six batters. |
Two notables: It was his shortest start since 2016, and he threw a season-low five sliders. |
At this point, Cole has been a below-average Fantasy SP for more starts than not on the season, and that's not SP1-worthy. The question shifts instead to can he get back to SP1 status and how fast. |
Cole's stats through his first eight starts (thru 5/12): 1.37 ERA, 78 K to 3 BB over 52.2 IP, 15.8% swinging strike rate Cole's stats through his last nine starts: 4.47 ERA, 57 K to 17 BB over 52.1 IP, 13% swinging strike rate |
Chris is not panicking, however, pointing to five- and six-start stretches in Cole's past where he struggled. We've seen some of the best SPs struggle for longer stretches only to figure it out (Luis Castillo comes to mind). But this one might be different as it does seem to mesh with him no longer having the flexibility to use sticky substances to enhance his spin rate. Cole has seen one of the biggest drops in spin rates among all SPs since MLB began its crackdown. |
Through it all, both Scott and Chris agreed that if someone in your league is in a full panic over Cole, contact said manager now and buy low! |
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Other notable spin rate drops |
White Sox SP Lucas Giolito went five innings against the Tigers and allowed six runs and 10 hits, raising his ERA to 4.20. Although he had 22 swinging strikes on 102 pitches, his fastball was down 175 rpm and his slider was down 242 rpm. He allowed six hard-hit balls. Tigers SP Tarik Skubal did not start the breakout we thought might come with his impressive underlying stats -- at least not against the White Sox. He went five innings, allowing eight hits and five runs, and his fastball velocity was down. He also saw his slider spin rate drop down 345 rpm. Skubal had a 2.82 ERA over his previous eight starts. White Sox SP Dylan Cease found a hard time against the Twins, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing six hits and six earned runs with 18 swinging strikes on 107 pitches. His fastball spin rate was down 254 rpm. Dodgers SP Walker Buehler last just five innings against the Marlins, allowing three earned runs, five hits and two walks with six strikeouts. Most importantly, he saw five different pitches drop down at least 191 rpm. |
More news and notes |
Marlins SP Sixto Sanchez is undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. An MRI revealed a small tear in the posterior capsule of his right shoulder. Cleveland SP Zach Plesac will be activated to start Thursday's game against the Royals. Nationals SS Trea Turner returned to the lineup and homered on Monday after missing a few games with a finger injury. Dusty Baker expressed hope that Astros OF Kyle Tucker would return from his back injury on Tuesday. Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty was transferred to the 60-day IL, which means he will not be back until early August. White Sox C Yasmani Grandal returned Monday and then left with that same calf injury. He's likely headed to the IL. Cleveland OF Eddie Rosario exited Monday with that persisting right abdominal issue, and it also sounds like he'll hit the IL. Reds RP Michael Lorenzen could return from the IL Saturday and could be a candidate for save opportunities. Giants C Buster Posey was out of the Giants lineup Monday with a left thumb contusion. He's day-to-day. Cleveland 3B Jose Ramirez was in the lineup Monday despite battling an elbow injury. Twins 3B Josh Donaldson with his hamstring and DH Nelson Cruz with his neck remained out of the lineup Monday. Angels 3B Anthony Rendon remained out Monday with hamstring tightness. Phillies OF Andrew McCutchen was in the lineup Monday after dealing with an oblique Sunday. Reds 2B/3B Jonathan India was scratched Monday with a sore right ankle. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently indicated that the team will discuss having David Price stretch out as a starter. |
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Prospect updates |
Red Sox outfield prospect Jarren Duran was not selected for Team USA in the Olympics because the Red Sox felt they may need to call him up. Well, let's get this show on the road! Brewers 2020 first-round pick Garrett Mitchell has been promoted to Double-A. The outfielder slashed .359/.504/.620 with five homers, 33 runs, 20 RBI and 12 stolen bases at High-A. Pirates pitching prospect Roansy Contreras is dealing with forearm tightness. |
The best waiver hitters to target |
Tigers OF Akil Baddoo (48% rostered) was not in the lineup Monday, but he's had seven hits over his previous four games with four bags during that span. White Sox 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn (62%) has 10 hits over his previous six games (not including Monday) with two homers. He was a top prospect for a reason and may be finally coming around. Maybe July is the reset for Mets 1B/OF Dominic Smith (64%) with eight hits, three homers, seven runs, seven RBI in five games. Reds 1B Joey Votto (66%) in 25 games since coming off the IL: .295 batting average with six homers and a 93 mph exit velocity during that stretch. For two-catcher leagues: Rockies C Elias Diaz (9%) has hit .306 with five homers in his last 15 games and is basically their everyday catcher now. |
The best waiver pitchers to target |
Mariners SP Logan Gilbert (70% rostered) in his last six starts: 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 34 K in 31 IP, 13.8% swinging strike rate (that's top 15 among SP had he qualified). Nationals SP/RP Joe Ross (64%) had another excellent outing, this time vs. the Dodgers where he struck out 11 in 6 2/3 innings. His fastball velocity remains up. In his last five starts, Ross has a 2.73 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 40 Ks to just four walks over 33 IP with an 11.6% swinging strike rate. Marlins SP/RP Zach Thompson (58%) now has a 2.25 ERA with a 14.8% SwStr rate through five starts after shutting down Atlanta. |
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