Over the past five months of war in Ukraine, a set of unspoken rules have prevented Russia and the West from crossing one another’s red lines. But Moscow and Washington’s shared desire to avoid escalation is “no guarantee that the war will contain itself,” Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage warn in a new essay for Foreign Affairs. This conflict is “prone to accident,” they write, and “there is no silver bullet for avoiding a wider war”—but “studied patience and calm can keep [it] from exploding out of control.” This essay is the latest installment of Fix and Kimmage’s series “The Ukraine Scenarios.” Since mid-February, when Russian troops appeared ready to invade and many observers expected a swift Russian victory, they have explored the possible paths the war might take—and considered the effects each outcome would have on Ukraine, Russia, the region, and the world, as well as the implications for U.S. policy. Read the rest of the collection below. |
