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Thursday, September 24, 2020 |
It's only Week 3, but doesn't it already feel like there's a lot on the line for your Fantasy team? In one of my home leagues, I'm staring down an 0-2 record after playing without Michael Thomas, George Kittle and Chris Godwin, and now I'm facing off with another winless team trying desperately not to fall too far behind. In another league, I've lost both games by a combined 3.1 points, and the worst part is, there wasn't even a lineup decision I could point to that would've made a difference either week, which means there's no obvious fix. |
Of course, you can't get down on yourself. Sure, you've got injury issues, but guess what? So does everyone else. You still have to go out and get a win in Week 3, no matter what you're facing down. You got Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls for Week 3 last night, but they're right here if you missed them. Now, it's Dave Richard's turn to offer some help. |
You'll also find the latest updates on all of the injuries for Week 3 from Wednesday, and a preview of Thursday's game between the Dolphins and Jaguars, a surprisingly fascinating game for Fantasy purposes. Plus, I took a look at some of the most inconsistent players through two weeks to try to figure out whether they're going to give you more of the good stuff or lean into the disappointment moving forward. |
And here's your Week 3 lineup tool kit to make sure you've got everything you need to go get that win: |
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In the past two years, there wasn't room for multiple viable starting Fantasy wide receivers in Buffalo's offense. However, with Josh Allen seeming to have taken a step forward, Brown is in the discussion right there next to Stefon Diggs — especially if Diggs has to see Jalen Ramsey more often in Week 3. Brown showed he can be a No. 1 receiver last season, which makes him suited for the opportunity to step up if Diggs gets slowed. |
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Personally, I was optimistic about Gurley's chances of a bounce back, but I'm not feeling good about it now. He's getting a ton of carries (35 in the first two games) but has been a total non-factor in the passing game, with just four targets and two catches for 1 yard through two games. The silver lining is, he's still run more routes (38) than Ito Smith (24) or Brian Hill (22), and neither has done anything to make the Falcons think a change is necessary. However, Gurley also hasn't shown Fantasy players any reason to view him as more than a low-end starting option yet. |
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Wednesday injury updates |
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QB Injuries |
- Jimmy Garoppolo (Ankle) — Did not practice. No surprises here. Nick Mullens will probably start this week.
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RB Injuries |
- Josh Jacobs (Hip) — Did not practice. Jacobs received treatment on his hip during the fourth quarter Monday, and then went out and locked up the win over the Saints. Presumably, he'll be able to play through it, but we'll have to watch this one.
- Malcolm Brown (Finger)/Cam Akers (Ribs) — Sean McVay made it sound like both Brown and Akers may be able to play this week, however he also initially described Darrell Henderson as "day to day" when he missed multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. So, you know, grain of salt.
- Raheem Mostert (Knee) — Did not practice. It would be a surprise if Mostert played in Week 3. Jeff Wilson might lead the backfield in carries, while Jerick McKinnon figures to see an expanded role over what he's done so far.
- Tevin Coleman (Knee) — Placed on IR. Coleman will be out at least three weeks as a result of this injury.
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WR Injuries |
- Michael Thomas (Ankle) — Did not practice. Not surprising. Thomas is a long shot for Week 3.
- Julio Jones (Hamstring) — Did not practice. This one is a bit of a surprise, because it sounded like Jones' hamstring wasn't a big concern. We'll have to watch it this week, but I would expect him to play at this point.
- Davante Adams (Hamstring) — Did not practice. Adams is in a similar spot as Jones. It's possible he sits out Week 3, but at this point I would lean toward expecting him to play.
- Kenny Golladay (Hamstring) — Limited in practice, expected to play.
- A.J. Brown (Knee) — Did not practice. Brown said he had to "take it slow" when talking about the injury Tuesday, so it looks like he's at risk of missing a second straight game.
- Diontae Johnson (Toe)/JuJu Smith-Schuster (Knee) — Did not practice, but they also both got Wednesday off last week, too. They should play. Don't panic like I almost did when I saw this.
- Jamison Crowder (Hamstring) — Did not practice. He's at risk of missing a second straight game.
- Christian Kirk (Groin) — Did not practice. This might explain Kirk's limited role in Week 2. You won't feel comfortable starting him either way.
- Jalen Reagor (Thumb) — Placed on IR. First a shoulder and now this. Tough way to start your rookie season.
- Steven Sims (Toe) — Did not practice. This does appear to be a new injury. Sims is just a bench option right now, so if you need to cut him, that's fine.
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TE Injuries |
- George Kittle (Knee) — Limited practice. Kittle is moving in the right direction, but still is not guaranteed to play in Week 3. We'll have to watch this one close — including those of you who started Jordan Reed last week.
- Jonnu Smith (Ankle) — Did not practice. This is a new one, and that makes it a concern. Keep a close eye and consider adding a backup like Mo Alie-Cox just in case.
- Jack Doyle (Knee) — Did not practice. I say Alie-Cox because it seems like he's gonna get a chance to follow up his 100-yard game in Week 2.
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The worst kind of early-season player is the one who swings from a huge Week 1 to a disappointing Week 2. You're sure you've got a stud on your hands after a big debut, only for them to let you down in Week 2 — it's even worse if it is a player you didn't start in Week 1 only to get bamboozled by Week 2. |
The second-worst kind of early-season player is the one who swings from a disappointing Week 1 to a huge Week 2. It's better than the former, because at least they're coming off a big week now, but you can't really trust that, can you? |
Let's figure out who you can trust. I took a look at some of the players who had the biggest dip in performance from Week 1 to Week 2 and vice versa to see which version you can expect moving forward. |
So-So Week 1, Huge Week 2 |
Aaron Jones — Week 1: 17.6 FPTs; Week 2: 45.6 |
- Which was real? Week 1. Which is, obviously, not a knock on him. Though, if Davante Adams does miss time, we saw last year how good that is for Jones' value as a pass catcher…
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Leonard Fournette — Week 1: 2.9 FPTs; Week 2: 27.6 |
- Which was real? Neither. Fournette was always going to see a bigger role than he did in Week 1, and you can't rely on him breaking a 46-yard run or catch five passes again. I still think this is a timeshare with Ronald Jones for now.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick — Week 1: 5.44 FPTs; Week 2: 28.32 |
- Which was real? Both. That's just the Fitzmagic experience, baby.
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Dak Prescott — Week 1: 19.64 FPTs; Week 2: 41.8 |
- Which was real? Week 2. OK, it was sort of a weird week with Prescott scoring three rushing touchdowns. However, Week 1 also wasn't representative; Prescott had a rushing touchdown overturned by replay and then Michael Gallup had a near-50-yard catch called back on a dubious pass interference. He's an elite Fantasy QB.
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Tyler Higbee — Week 1: 7 FPTs; Week 2: 28.4 |
- Which was real? Week 1. I'm actually pretty worried about Higbee, and would try to trade him if I could. He has just nine targets through his first two games, after getting at least eight in each of the last five games during his breakout last season. If not for the touchdowns in Week 2, people would be panicking about Higbee.
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Big Week 1, so-so Week 2 |
Davante Adams — Week 1: 41.6 FPTs; Week 2: 6.6 |
- Which was real? Week 1. He's arguably the best wide receiver in Fantasy, and he got hurt in Week 2.
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Nyheim Hines — Week 1: 27.3 FPTs; Week 2: 1.4 |
- Which was real? Both. When the game script allows for it, Hines is going to have a real role in Indy's offense. That should include some goal-line work like we saw in Week 1, if he happens to be in on a drive where the offense is clicking and gets in close. Then there are going to be weeks where the Colts can lean on Jonathan Taylor. Week 3 against the Jets should probably be one of the latter.
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Adam Thielen — Week 1: 31 FPTs; Week 2: 6.1 |
- Which was real? Both. Because of the low pass volume in this offense, this passing offense is going to be tough to rely on — especially with a mercurial passer like Kirk Cousins at the helm. However, because he seems like he's going to have something close to a 30% target share, you're keeping Thielen in your lineup as a boom-or-bust No. 2 WR every week.
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Josh Jacobs — Week 1: 35.9 FPTs; Week 2: 13.5 |
- Which was real? Week 1. Jacobs won't score three touchdowns every week, but his role in the passing game is real. He has more targets than any two-game stretch of his rookie season, and he's run 35 routes compared to just 22 for Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker combined.
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Malcolm Brown — Week 1: 26 FPTs; Week 2: 4.7 |
- Which was real? Neither, though I might lean more toward Week 1 if you twisted my arm. Brown has run 40 routes through two games, more than Higbee has, even! The other running backs on the team have run 21 between them, and that trend was still in effect in Week 2 even though he left early because of injury. The Rams like Brown a lot more than Fantasy players do.
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Dolphins at Jaguars |
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook |
- Line: Jaguars -3.0; 48.0 over/under
- Implied totals: Dolphins 22.5-Jaguars 25.5
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What to expect: A close game with a lot of offense. Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew are known for their ability to extend plays and find their best options, and this line suggests we're going to see a lot from both in a game that should be competitive down to the wire. |
Key injuries: D.J. Chark (Chest/back) — Questionable: Chark was a limited participant in practice Monday and Tuesday with the chest injury, and then missed Wednesday's practice with the back injury added to his designation. Not a good sign; DeVante Parker (Hamstring) — Questionable: Parker has played through this injury and played well, though he did have to leave Week 1 after aggravating it. He's an injury risk, but Parker has been so good — 78 catches, 1,227 yards, 10 touchdowns over his past 16 games — that I don't think there's any way you can sit him against a matchup this enticing. |
What to watch for: The biggest thing I'll be keeping an eye on is how the various receiving options are used on each team. Parker and Mike Gesicki are getting plenty of high-value targets from Ryan Fitzpatrick, but so is Preston Williams — he's just not doing anything with them. If Williams continues to struggle, do they funnel more of the offense to Parker and Gesicki? And on the other side, the Jaguars have been spreading the ball around a ton, with no player seeing even 20% of the targets. If Chark doesn't play, Keelan Cole looks like a viable plug-and-play option off waivers as the likely No. 1 option, while Laviska Shenault could be in for a breakout game if he gets more work in the passing game — the Jaguars are already using him quite a bit as a rusher. |
Notable player props |
- Mike Gesicki: 45.5 receiving yards — This is a great spot to set the O/U for Gesicki, who is coming off a huge breakout performance but has also gone over 45.5 just five times in nine games since his snap share went up in Week 11 last season. I'm starting Gesicki everywhere I have him, and there's a lot to like about his role in this offense, but he's had that role for a while and hasn't been consistently great with it yet. I'll take the over because I want to be optimistic, but it seems like a coin flip.
- DeVante Parker: 60.5 receiving yards — Now this one, I feel great about. Parker has been below 60 yards in the first two games, but he was well on his way before missing the second half against the Patriots in Week 1. The hamstring injury obviously looms large, but he closed out 2019 with 61 or more yards in seven of his final eight games. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to do the same tonight.
- James Robinson: 13.5 receiving yards — Robinson has gone over this one twice in two career games, so it feels like that should be a fairly easy one to hit. In Week 1 he did that on just one target, which you can't count on, but that was also a game the Jaguars threw the ball just 20 times, so his four targets in Week 2 may be more representative of his role. I like what we're seeing from Robinson, and this is a low enough number that I'd hit the over on this one, too. What can I say, I like the offense in this game.
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