What's Happening

Politics

2024 Is the "Coin-Flip" Election...Unless You Ask Some in the GOP

What's going on: No one knows what to expect on Election Day (other than it could take days to get the results). Polls suggest a tight race, with a recent Reuters survey showing VP Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just 1% — a difference within the margin of error. Other polling from CNN and The New York Times paints a similar picture, leading Axios to declare the race a “coin-flip” election. Despite the polls, some conservative figures assert that Trump will win by a landslide. Some go so far as to say that the Democrats are already rigging the election. At a recent rally, Trump himself said that the only way the Democrats will win is if they “cheat.” According to an NBC News analysis, the former president has upped this rhetoric significantly in the last month, with no evidence for his claims.

What it means: Experts warn that some people on the right are setting the stage to reject the validity of the election by prematurely saying the former president has all but won. Some conservative voices are pointing to high Republican turnout as a sign of a Trump victory, but early voting data is not predictive of a final outcome. Democrats are already preparing for the possibility that Trump may declare an early victory on election night or legally challenge the results. Meanwhile, at least 40% of voters say they are worried about violent attempts to overturn the results, according to an AP poll. At the end of the day, either candidate could win by a large margin or by a sliver. The only thing left to do is to have a voting plan and wait until the results roll in.

Related: VP Kamala Harris Made Her Closing Pitch Last Night (NPR)

Election

What Isn't Doing Well in the Polls? American Democracy

What's going on: Although razor-thin margins are making it tough to predict a clear winner of the presidential election, both candidates are polling better than American democracy. A whopping 45% of voters say our democracy doesn’t effectively represent ordinary people, while 76% believe it’s under threat, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. What’s posing a threat to democracy? Well, it depends on who you ask. Republicans in the survey pointed to immigration, Democrats in general, and news outlets. Democratic respondents also called out the media and Trump. Meanwhile, folks across the political spectrum said that the government failed to fix pressing issues — from inflation to gun violence. The findings come as some pundits say this election could shape the future of democracy as we know it.

What it means: Threats to democracy aren’t new. In 2016, the US dropped from a “full” to a “flawed” democracy, according to The Democracy Index. The system was imperfect long before then (especially prior to the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act). And more recently, the Jan. 6 riot attempted to overturn the 2020 election. Many scholars have warned of trends toward authoritarianism. There’s also the increasing polarization of our politics, especially regarding social issues. History shows democracies have collapsed before, like America’s almost did in the 1930s, before people came together amid new reforms to help mend a broken system, according to The New Yorker. As Jimmy Stewart said in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington: “Great principles don’t get lost once they come to light.”

Related: Democracy As Art? Here's What That Looks Like (NYT) 

Health

Walking Pneumonia Is on the Rise — Here’s What to Know

What's going on: A warning from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) could add one more thing for parents to worry about. Earlier this month, the health agency said it’s seen a rise in Mycoplasma pneumoniae cases among children ages 2 to 4. The bacteria can lead to “walking pneumonia” — an illness that spreads through coughs and sneezes and can lead to fevers, headaches, and chest pains. In previous years, health experts noted a higher number of cases among older children. However, this year, the most unusual trend is the increase in infections among younger kiddos. Adults have also fallen sick. Health experts say only about 10% of those infected actually develop pneumonia.

What it means: Officials are still investigating why more young children are catching the infection this year, despite the US reporting nearly 2 million cases annually. Health experts recommend covering your mouth when you sneeze or cough. Crowded places like schools and nursing homes can become breeding grounds for the disease. Most people recover on their own, and doctors can prescribe antibiotics to help treat the infection. However, walking pneumonia is the latest in a growing list of respiratory infections that doctors need to monitor this winter, including RSV.

Related: Kids Can Be “Germ Vectors.” This Is How Often They Can Get You Sick (NPR)