Thursday, July 02, 2020 | Feels like the Wild West sometimes, doesn’t it? From Russian bounties and COVID-19 spikes to a “white power” retweet by the president, it’s been a helluva week. So, like true cowboys, we’re heading west to reflect on lessons from Tuesday’s primaries in Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah before focusing on the races still to be fought. We’ll also tell you which states to watch for the biggest impacts on this year’s presidential race and the non-politicos who could make a difference come November. |
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| | | 1. Those Who Came Out on Top Kendra Horn, the ultimate DIY Democrat who had the biggest upset in 2018 by winning her Republican-leaning Oklahoma district, hopes to secure a second term. She won her Democratic primary Tuesday and will face either businesswoman Terry Neese or state Sen. Stephanie Bice (there’ll be a runoff for the GOP candidate) in November. It’s still too close to call Utah’s closely watched gubernatorial race between Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former governor-turned-ambassador Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, in Colorado, moderate Dem John Hickenlooper won his Senate race, but in the western part of the state, gun-toting far-right candidate Lauren Boebert beat out her more moderate GOP opponent, incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton. |
| 2. Will the Conspiracy Caucus Choke? Lauren Boebert, 34, has expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy, which claims that President Trump is secretly trying to take down child-molesting elitists throughout all levels of government. Yep, you read that right. Restaurant owner Boebert joins at least nine candidates nationwide who are open to this conspiracy theory. But here’s the conundrum for the GOP: Her district leans right, but it might prove to be won by a Democrat in a wave election — a contest in which the Republicans backed a candidate who made their party look like a bunch of conspiracy-mongers. |
| 3. An LGBTQ-Friendly, Anti-Trump Governor for Utah? Utah Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, for the moment at least, has a slim lead over former Gov. Jon Huntsman in Utah. The winner of this week’s primary essentially lands the governorship, owing to the Beehive State’s largely conservative bent — but liberals should still care which Republican prevails. Cox, a 44-year-old father of four who plays bass in his garage band on weekends, has shown stunning moments of cross-spectrum compassion and political bravery, much needed in today’s herd-mentality politics. On June 13, 2016, for example, the Mormon politician gave a speech at a Salt Lake City vigil for the 49 who died in the Orlando nightclub shooting the night before. Surprisingly, Cox apologized for mistreating gay classmates and not showing more support for the queer community, before asking straight folks to examine their views. |
| 4. Can #BlackLivesMatter Win in Texas? Despite little new drama in the presidential race, some states, including Louisiana, Alabama and Texas, have crucial primary elections and runoffs this month. Watch to see if Alabama forgives former Attorney General Jeff Sessions for his alleged Trump apostasy over the senator’s decision not to intervene in the Russia investigations. This led the president to back Sessions’ former Auburn football coach opponent, Tommy Tuberville. In Texas, former Air Force pilot MJ Hegar appears poised to fly off with the Democratic Senate nomination. But George Floyd protests have refocused the discussion around race, giving hope to her opponent, Royce West, a Black state senator who has pioneered criminal justice reform laws. If West wins, it would be proof that the Black Lives Matter movement has serious ballot-box power, having changed hearts and minds. |
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| | | | 1. Will North Carolina Flip Again? The only proven Deep South swing state in recent history — no, Florida doesn’t count, Yanks! — North Carolina backed Obama in 2008 but switched to Romney in 2012 and went with Trump in 2016. It surprisingly elected Gov. Roy Cooper four years ago, but the Democrat has been stymied by a nearly veto-proof Republican Legislature. Now Cooper is up for reelection, incumbent GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is facing a steep challenge from Army reservist Cal Cunningham, and North Carolina remains a key check mark if Trump is to win reelection. Although the perennial debate over best barbecue spots remains heated, the biggest debate in the Tar Heel State is politics — and whoever wins will draw the legislative maps for the next decade in the notoriously gerrymandered state. Right now, Real Clear Politics has Biden leading Trump by 3 percentage points on average. |
| 2. You’d Think a Desert State Would Be Red Believe it or not, Arizona is now more blue than North Carolina, according to polls that show Biden up by an average of 6 points. It won’t help Trump’s case that Gov. Doug Ducey just had to announce a new shutdown order after Arizona saw a surge of COVID-19 deaths following the president’s advice to quickly reopen businesses. Or that Senate candidate Martha McSally, who lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in 2018, has run another lackluster campaign and is trailing former astronaut Mark Kelly by more than 10 points. On Tuesday, Trump tweeted that he was “THE LONE WARRIOR!” He may feel especially alone in the Grand Canyon State, given how little help he’s getting from his party allies. |
| 3. Just When You Think You Know the Buckeyes A decade ago, this wouldn’t seem like a surprising battleground state. But considering its recent red swing — Trump won it by 9 points in 2016 — many pollsters had written it off as a GOP win this time around. Now Ohio is suddenly even again, after Trump suffered perhaps the worst polling month of his presidency and reelection campaign. The Rust Belt was looking to be a bulwark for Republicans against the Democratic blue wave felt in the South, yet that support is corroding. Meanwhile, 34-year-old Ohio minority leader Emilia Sykes is taking a Stacey Abrams-esque path to power, and GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, who has managed perhaps the best coronavirus response of any Republican, is showing that no-nonsense, facts-first heads can prevail in the Buckeye State. |
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| the influencers Here are some of the non-politicians who could swing the elections. |
| | 1. Chris Marsicano He's president of the Tavern League of Wisconsin, perhaps the most powerful lobby in the New Glarus-loving state and one that boasts about being the boozing capital of America. The Tavern League publicly lobbied for restaurants and bars to open back up amid the pandemic, and took a victory lap when the state Supreme Court overturned restrictions. They could be a political force if they choose to back anti-closure Republicans (and Trump) in the pivotal November swing state. |
| 2. Mark Cuban The Shark Tank entrepreneur and Dallas Mavericks owner once told OZY that if Trump “lasts four years, I’ll be there to kick his ass.” While Cuban — who brought Dallas an NBA championship with the Mavs in 2011 — didn’t end up running himself, last week he told Sean Hannity he would vote for Joe Biden in November … a pretty pivotal endorsement in Texas, which teeters on the edge of turning blue in 2020. |
| 3. Eric Hyers He's been announced as the new Michigan state director for Biden. Hyers cut his teeth helping Democrat Andy Beshear beat former Trumpian entrepreneur-turned-Gov. Matt Bevin in Kentucky in 2019, an upset victory that could define his Michigan strategy against Trump himself. |
| 4. Kayleigh McEnany The White House press secretary is doing her best to keep the president afloat, defending even his most egregious mistakes with unassailable zeal … a level of loyalty Trump needs more than ever as he continues plummeting in the polls. |
| 5. Joe Rogan The massively influential podcaster was a pretty vocal fan of Democrats like Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders in the primary, but in April said he would rather vote for Trump than Biden, based on the latter’s perceived cognitive decline. His pox-on-both-candidates approach could lead to some similar Bernie-turned-Trump voters — or even keep some voters at home, convinced that neither candidate is worth their time. |
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