Why bet NFL underdogs + picks

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Complimentary winning NFL football picks and analysis from Wunderdog Sports

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NFL Football Comp Edition

October 21, 2011

You are member #2011 out of 311417.

John,

After five straight winning weeks, last week we suffered our first losing week of the NFL regular season. This week is a week of "haves" vs. "have-nots" as all but three games on the docket feature a winning team vs. a .500 or worse team. There are no games matching up two winning teams. And, of course the public is all over the winning favorites in these mis-match matchups. Are they lemmings walking off a cliff? This is a good time to review my NFL betting philosophy (in The Dog Pound below). This week's complimentary pick follows this philosophy. I have nine total NFL picks on Sunday which you can get here.

College Football is rocking! We've hit 60% over the past three weeks in college football and I have ten picks going on Saturday. Get them here.

Remember, only my premium newsletters offer access to my highest value picks. Purchase now to make sure you are not left out in the cold. Don't get shut out from these premium winning picks. Order here.

NFL Straight-Up Picks: Office Pool & Computer Predictions
NFL football office pool picks (straight-up - not against the spread picks)
NFL computer predictions (scores predicted for every game on the board)
Important: The pool & computer predictions are NOT my official ATS picks. They are raw statistical predictions. They should not be played ATS blindly.

Wunderdog Lifetime NFL Results (10 seasons)
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Six Reasons Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL

Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your picks.

1. NFL Parity
The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams since the turn of the century: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, Carolina in 2004 and the Giants in 2007. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. In 2008, Arizona snuck up on everyone to make it to the Super Bowl. In 2009, the Saints were supposed to be a .500 team, but won 13 regular season games and the Super Bowl. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?  

2. A Win is a Win
Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.
 
3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect
Underdogs don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.
 
read reasons 4-6 here


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Game: St. Louis at Dallas (Sunday 10/23 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +13 (-110)

How the hell can I back St. Louis, a team getting outscored 9.8 to 27.4 on average on the season? Actually, given the history of pointspreads in the NFL, the question should be how can you not back them? Any pick can be a win or a loss and picks on ugly dogs can lose ugly. But, history says the very beastly dog here is the way to go. I don't think there is much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one, but thanks to an inflated number, we have value taking the points on the Rams. When you get to this point of the season and a team hasn't notched a win, you automatically get extra line value on them. Add in a big loss last week in which St. Louis looked horrible and you get even more value. Dallas is off a huge emotional game vs. New England, a game they had for over 59 minutes, but in the end New England and Tom Brady once again worked their magic on their way to another win. I seriously doubt Dallas will be excited and focused after that one facing this Rams team. Winless teams from Week 6 come through blindly at a 62% clip ATS as their opponents often mail-in these games. Dallas has had more problems as a favorite than any team in the league of late as well, as they are a dismal 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 when giving points, including 1-7 ATS at home in that situation. I'm going with the ugly dog here and backing St. Louis.

I have nine total NFL picks on Sunday which you can get here. College Football is rocking! We've hit 60% over the past three weeks in college football and I have ten picks going on Saturday. Get them here.


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NFL Football Resources

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- Win or Lose - What to Expect

About This Newsletter
Complimentary Picks Every Day

This newlsetter is for designed to help sports bettors improve their winning percentage. Each newsletter contains handicapping information, analysis, trends and a complimentary pick. I post all of my picks on my website so you can track exactly how I perform every day.

About The Wunderdog
Sports Picks and Handicapping Info

Based on over two decades of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA & NCAA basketball, NHL, WNBA and MLB games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.

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Good Luck.

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