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What’s Behind Today’s Oil Spike? |
The Biden administration has released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve multiple times to try and cut off the rise in gas prices.
Most recently, the admin ordered another 15 million barrels to be released from the dwindling SPR supply on October 19 — totaling about 165 million barrels.
This, along with dampening Chinese demand, helped push prices down slightly in the last days of October…
But the effects were only temporary. Oil’s on the rise again.
WTI and Brent both climbed nearly 2% today. That puts WTI just under $90/barrel and Brent around $95/barrel.
Some investors may be surprised at this news. OPEC output held steady last month — with a daily increase of 30,000 bpd.
That’s the thing: today’s rise does not have much to do with the physical supply just yet… |
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“The physical markets are very tight,” said IEF secretary-general Joe McMonigle. Meanwhile, “The paper markets are pricing in bad economic news and a bad recession.”
For one, OPEC is planning a far deeper cut of 2 million bpd this month.
The Biden administration criticized this decision, saying it harms the global economy and implied it’s meant to help Russia.
OPEC countered by expressing that a potential global slowdown necessitates they pump the brakes on production.
Now, a lack of investment and other issues is slowly creating a supply issue. According to Bloomberg, the total OPEC supply is about 1 million bpd below targets.
Speaking of Russia…
Energy historian Daniel Yergin could weaponize oil prices, citing his weaponization of natural gas. |
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“It may be in his interests to constrict supply and see prices go up,” Yergin said about oil. “You don’t have to take a lot off to create panic in the market.”
And speaking of weaponization/conflict, back to Saudi Arabia:
This morning, the WSJ reported Saudi Arabia shared intelligence with the US that Iran may attack several targets in Saudi Arabia. The US and various Middle Eastern military forces are on high alert…
Saudi Arabia claims Iran’s potential attacks are designed to distract from domestic unrest in Iran. Media in Saudi Arabia were covering the protests, and Iran warned Saudi Arabia to crack down on that coverage.
Regardless, most of the recent gains seem to be paper-driven. If a global slowdown fails to materialize and the tension we discussed ease, these oil traders may see losses.
However, I think their bets could potentially pay off. |
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. |
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