Many Americans don't have a clue what's going on in the stock market... Last May, the Guardian newspaper and research firm Harris Poll conducted a study.
Why the S&P 500 Is 93% Likely to Go Up This Year
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
Many Americans don't have a clue what's going on in the stock market...
Last May, the Guardian newspaper and research firm Harris Poll conducted a study. They focused on the average American's beliefs on the markets, the economy, and more.
Importantly, 49% of respondents believed the stock market had gone down in 2024.
That's significant...
You see, at the time of the survey, the S&P 500 Index was actually up more than 12% on the year. And before that, the benchmark stock index rose 24% in 2023.
As astute investors, we know the good times continued...
The S&P 500 eventually gained 23% in 2024. That was its sixth double-digit annual return in eight years.
And yet, the study I mentioned suggests that roughly half the U.S. population is missing this massive opportunity. They're not paying close attention to stocks.
I can't imagine a more financially dangerous disconnect. You don't want to join that crowd.
The U.S. stock market is responsible for some of the greatest opportunities you'll ever see. And worse, if you miss an opportunity, you might spend a decade or more playing catch-up.
I'm here to make sure you always stay one step ahead of half your neighbors.
And folks, as I'll show you today, it's still an exciting time to invest...
After this week's crash in the AI sector, now is NOT the time to be guessing or taking wild risks with your money. Instead, you need to be smart... calculated... and make sure your ENTIRE portfolio is set up for success. Is yours? Or are you dangerously exposed to a big move down? If you're worried, watch this immediately.
New research reveals what Elon Musk could be planning in Washington, D.C. and how it may impact your money. In short, Musk has much bigger plans than simply "draining the swamp." His next big project could bring about nothing short of a revolution in our economy – it could change the way you file and pay your taxes... collect Social Security... and how you travel. To do it, Musk will likely use the same strategy he has applied in every other business. See the playbook here.
2025 is shaping up to be a big year in stocks. And it all starts with the "5x Signal."
The 5x Signal is easy to understand. It triggers when the S&P 500 suffers a single "down" month followed by five straight "up" months.
As we saw in 2024, "record highs" can happen a lot during big bull runs. The 5x Signal doesn't occur as often. Over the past 70 years, it has only happened 30 times.
But notably, it points to even more gains ahead...
In the first 29 instances, the S&P 500 was up a year later 93% of the time. And even when you factor in the two "down" cases, the index had gained an average of 13% a year later.
Here's why I'm telling you all about the 5x Signal today...
This signal triggered for the 30th time in September.
That means we're looking at an incredible opportunity in the coming months. Based on history, the odds are in our favor.
Even better, the election is finally behind us...
When the 5x Signal flashes in an election year, most of the overall market's gains come later. They're essentially pushed into the post-election year – in this case, 2025.
This extraordinary post-election-year surge makes sense when you think about it...
After all, the U.S. stock market loves certainty. But uncertainty plagues election years. It's especially painful toward the end of the year – during the weeks leading up to Election Day.
But then, what happens every time?
Somebody wins.
The American investing public finally learns who will run the show for the next four years. And by Inauguration Day in mid-January, certainty returns to the markets in full.
That just happened, of course. Donald Trump is now officially back in the White House.
That means the biggest potential gains are starting right now. I urge you to tune out all the messy political noise, leave all your fears behind you, and keep your eye on the prize.
History tells us, with 93% accuracy, that we'll see higher stock prices in the coming months.
I believe we'll see a huge post-election stock surge like what happened in 2017 and 2021. The S&P 500 gained 19% and 27%, respectively, in those two years.
At least for now, the index seems to be shaking off the uncertainty. It's at about 6,070 today. And as we wrap up the first month of 2025, it's already up roughly 3% this year.
We should still be careful – like always.
But fortunately, we still have a green light as investors. That's great to see.
And of course, the Power Gauge can help us find the best opportunities in the market...
That's why I created my one-of-a-kind system. I wanted to help ordinary folks like you understand Wall Street data without the need for degrees in mathematics or finance.
With the Power Gauge on our side, we can get the most out of 2025 and the 5x Signal.
To that point, I've put together a full report for my Power Gauge Investor subscribers...
In it, I've uncovered 10 companies across many different industries. And importantly, they share one thing in common...
The Power Gauge shows that they're all primed to beat the market in the year ahead.
I created similar "Top Stocks" reports in 2023 and 2024 as well.
In both cases, subscribers who followed my recommendations could've made big gains...
For example, Arista Networks (ANET) surged 77% in about a year after I highlighted it in December 2022. In fact, in that report, nine of the 10 stocks gained at least 10%.
Then, last February, I featured tech-related stocks ServiceNow (NOW) and Fortinet (FTNT) in my 2024 report. They climbed 34% and 39%, respectively, through mid-December.
My point is simple...
The 5x Signal tells us that 2025 is going to be an incredible year. And with the Power Gauge's help, I've found 10 companies that are likely to beat the broad market.
For a brief time, you can still claim access to this report and a bundle of bonus research to help you succeed in 2025. Get all the details right here.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.37%
11
13
6
S&P 500
+0.54%
105
252
141
Nasdaq
+0.43%
34
47
19
Small Caps
+1.02%
430
1025
449
Bonds
+0.37%
Utilities
+2.08%
4
21
6
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Staples
+2.88%
Communication
+2.47%
Health Care
+2.26%
Financial
+2.11%
Discretionary
+0.77%
Materials
+0.24%
Real Estate
+0.19%
Utilities
-0.44%
Industrials
-1.65%
Energy
-2.21%
Information Technology
-3.99%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Aerospace & Defense Services
10
23
0
Over the past 6 months, the Aerospace & Defense subsector (XAR) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.95%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors.
Top Stocks
ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc.
NPK
National Presto Indu
WWD
Woodward, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
VST
+13.59%
IBM
+12.96%
LVS
+11.08%
GEV
+8.4%
LRCX
+7.43%
Losers
UPS
-14.11%
NOW
-11.44%
CMCSA
-11.0%
CHRW
-6.94%
CI
-6.7%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
VLO Valero Energy Corporation
Q4
$0.64
Beat by $0.58
IP International Paper Company
Q4
$-0.02
Missed by $-0.03
WY Weyerhaeuser Company
Q4
$0.11
Beat by $0.04
TEAM Atlassian Corporation
Q2
$0.96
Beat by $0.20
CI The Cigna Group
Q4
$6.64
Missed by $-1.18
* * * *
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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
