During his first term, Trump rolled back dozens of environmental regulations and pulled the US from the Paris climate agreement. His second term could be even more destructive, experts say.
One analysis warned that Trump’s forthcoming rollbacks could add 4bn additional metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere by 2030 when compared with a continuation of policies under Biden. That “would be a death sentence to our planet,” said Jamie Minden, the acting executive director of the US-based youth-led climate nonprofit Zero Hour, at a press conference in Baku on Monday about the election result.
Todd Stern was the US special envoy for climate change, and the country’s chief negotiator at the 2015 Paris climate agreement. He said that Trump’s looming presidency could also place a damper on other countries’ climate action plans, especially China, which is the top global contributor to planet-warming emissions.
“The two biggest players in the ring are the US and China, and China is extremely aware of that. It has just got a guarantee that the US president won’t be bringing up climate change with them for the next four years and that means something,” Stern said. “It will make things easier on China, and that can’t help but have some impact.”
The issues, though, can’t be resolved over a four-year term in office. “The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country,” said Podesta. The UN climate conference in Baku represents a “critical opportunity to cement our progress”.
At Cop29, activists are pushing the Biden administration to file a bold climate plan under the Paris climate agreement – known as a nationally determined contribution – and to make big pledges to support global climate finance efforts.
The president “still has critical opportunities to cement his climate legacy”, said Allie Rosenbluth, co-manager of the climate research and advocacy group Oil Change International. “Biden must use his remaining months in office to reject pending fossil fuel permits.”
As Damian Carrington explained in last week’s newsletter, at least $1tn is needed to help poor nations reduce emissions, shift to a low-carbon economy and adapt to the impacts of climate disasters. If the US fails to meaningfully contribute, other countries can fill the climate finance gap left by the US, noted Teresa Anderson, the global climate justice lead at ActionAid, at another press conference. “This is a test for rich countries,” she said. “If they believe in the climate emergency, then they should be willing to pay more than their fair share, not less.”
US senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a climate enthusiast who will arrive at Cop29 later this week, said Trump and other US Republicans are “aiming a torpedo” at climate progress, but the pressure to slash US emissions will stay strong. “I’m heading to Baku to reassure the international community that large swaths of the US remain committed to steering the planet away from climate catastrophe, a catastrophe that is already doing massive economic harm and driving up prices for insurance, food and other goods and services,” he said.
However, the Paris accord has 195 signatories and “will not collapse in the face of a single election result,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. “The Paris agreement has survived one Trump presidency and it will survive another.”
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