The market-friendly Ramaphosa came to power in 2018 promising a break from the corruption-riddled rule of his predecessor, Jacob Zuma.

But in the lead-up to the elective conference, Ramaphosa himself has been embroiled in what is known as the Phala Phala scandal, which could still — even after his victory as ANC leader — threaten his presidency.

Stranger than fiction, this scandal involves the bizarre story of the theft of $580,000 in cash reportedly hidden in a sofa in a spare bedroom on Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala cattle farm. The circumstances surrounding why the cash was placed there, how a cleaner convinced burglars to steal it, and how the robbers were caught is still not entirely clear.

Phala Phala came to light when Arthur Fraser — Zuma’s ally and the ex-head of the State Security Agency — lodged a criminal complaint against Ramaphosa. The complaint led to a parliamentary inquiry which found, weeks before the ANC conference, that Ramaphosa had questions to answer on how he got that money — and why it was stashed in a sofa if it was obtained through legitimate means.

Ramaphosa’s immediate response was to call a media conference for which he had prepared a resignation speech.

However, desperate phone calls from close political allies and his own lawyers convinced him to fight for his political survival. By the day’s end, Ramaphosa canceled the media conference and signaled that he was prepared to challenge the parliamentary panel’s findings, and would stand for reelection as president of the ANC.

Ex-President Zuma then responded by seeking a private prosecution — where individuals, not the state, can seek to prosecute someone — against Ramaphosa. Zuma was seeking to invoke the ANC’s “step aside” rule, whereby anybody facing criminal charges cannot run for office.

South African markets were tense and political nerves were jangling in the hours before the conference’s election results. As political commentator J.J. Tabane said on the night before the results: “Let’s be clear, if Zweli Mkhize makes it [as ANC president], it is Zuma’s faction incarnate.” Tabane argued that South Africa under Mkhize would see a swift reversal of the small progress made by Ramaphosa’s government against corruption. Mkhize himself is still caught up in a tender scandal from his days as health minister during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aside from the top job at the ANC, six other senior positions were to be decided at the conference. There was a very real possibility, political analyst Richard Calland said, that even if Ramaphosa survived, he would have a “very unfriendly” leadership alongside him.

That would have created a situation similar to the outcome of the ANC’s 2017 leadership conference, which left Ramaphosa surrounded by several of Zuma’s supporters, including Ace Magashule. This setup led to what some called a hand-to-hand battle between the two that ultimately resulted in Magashule’s suspension — but also left Ramaphosa hamstrung, as he had to accommodate several Zuma allies in his cabinet as a compromise. Some of these cabinet ministers, such as tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu, were even photographed at the 2022 conference with signs saying “Ramaphosa must go.”

As the ANC reconvened on Monday afternoon to announce the result of the leadership vote, a visibly exhausted Ramaphosa sat in the crowd awaiting his fate. When the outcome was announced, Ramaphosa’s supporters broke into singing and cheering.

Rampant corruption in the Zuma years, poor maintenance and engineering, as well as industrial sabotage have long plagued the country’s electricity system. Then, in the days leading up to the conference, the man Ramaphosa appointed to solve Eskom’s problems, André de Ruyter, resigned. This news was swiftly followed by the announcement that the army had been called in to surround four major power stations, in an attempt to stop the sabotage.

The Phala Phala scandal is also likely to shadow Ramaphosa. And then there is the Zondo Commission’s inquiry report on Zuma-era corruption, which has pointed fingers at many ANC members, including the ANC’s newly elected 1st Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane.

Political analyst Stephen Grootes argued that Ramaphosa’s victory “does not necessarily mean that the ANC itself is stronger.” In fact, the conference exposed the party’s deep divisions to a  nation that has long suffered from the broken promises of its political elite.

A recent poll by the think tank Rivonia Circle showed the ANC would get only 41% of the national vote, down from their 57% in the 2019 general election. Ramaphosa may have survived for now, but Mandela’s party looks weaker than ever before in its three decades of power.