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GM. This is Milk Road. The newsletter that's always there – ready with a hug – whenever your portfolio is being mean to you. |
Here’s what we got for you today: |
✍️ One step closer to a soft landing 📊 Crypto’s top earners of 2024 (so far) 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How the FED Impacts Markets: Rates, Recession, Unemployment & More w/ Kyla Scanlon 🍪 CZ permanently lost his right to manage Binance |
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ONE STEP CLOSER TO A SOFT LANDING ✈️ |
No. |
The fanfiction you wrote about Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger being stranded on a desert island (Berkshire Castaways) did not, finally go viral. |
Those notifications were coming from Trading View, after August’s unemployment data came in and momentarily spiked prices (before dropping again). |
Here’s what you need to know: |
1/ We were on target for the first time since April. 🎯 |
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2/ Jobs growth missed, but still showed growth. 🌱 |
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3/ A soft landing is still on the table. 🛬 |
The Fed has been attempting to cool the US economy (bring inflation down), without overdoing it (pushing us into recession). |
Which is often likened to landing a plane – gradually descending over time, instead of nose diving into the tarmac. |
Here’s how those two potential outcomes could play out: |
Soft landing = cutting rates in a healthy economy. Which looks something like this… |
Unemployment stays steady or rises slightly – consumers maintain their buying power, while the Fed remains confident that cutting rates won’t lead to runaway inflation. Economy cools slowly – enough to curb inflation, while avoiding mass panic-selling. Economic activity remains steady – consumers continue to put their money back into the economy. |
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Hard landing = cutting rates to try and save a broken economy. Which looks something like this… |
Unemployment rises sharply – folks have less money to spend. Economy slows rapidly – investors pull their money out of the market. Economic activity reduces drastically – consumers start saving more, putting less money back into the economy. |
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Of all of these metrics, the most important one right now is unemployment. |
To pull off a soft landing, unemployment needs to sit riiight in the goldilocks zone: |
Not high enough to trigger a recession. Not so low that the Fed holds off on rate cuts (hindering new cash from entering the system and pumping our respective bags). |
Good news is, right now just about all of this data is trending towards a soft landing. 🫂 |
Unemployment softened ever-so-slightly, inflation is easing steadily, and retail spending is up. |
But as is always the case when you’re using backward looking data, this could change… |
And it’s that kind of uncertainty that the market hates – so don’t be surprised if we see extended chop this month. |
…ok, but where to from here? What’s the Fed’s next move?? |
Kyla Scanlon, author of 'In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work' (and all-round G.O.A.T. of the financial education space) joins Kyle Reidhead on today’s episode of The Milk Road Show to discuss that and more! |
Here’s just some of what they cover: |
Is the US already in a recession? 📉 What are the prospects of a soft landing? 🛬 A look forward to 2025’s economic prospects… ⏩ |
Watch/listen/devour it below! 👇 |
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YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts |
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COTD: CRYPTO’S TOP EARNERS OF 2024 (SO FAR) 💰 |
Alright, let’s close out the week with a frothy little chart and some quick-hitting takeaways. |
Here’re the top earners in crypto (by revenue) so far in 2024: |
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Shout out to Lex Sokolin for inspiring this one! |
Shot out of a cannon, and onto the page – here are our top 3 takeaways: |
1/ Remember yesterday when we covered the ‘Fat App Thesis’, which predicts apps will eventually out-earn infrastructure products? |
Yah. We ain’t there yet. |
Infra is still earning way too much money for developers to ignore! 👀 |
Give it * checks watch * say, a couple of years? |
2/ Are exchanges doing ok (can someone check)? |
We didn’t expect so many of them to be sitting so far left on this chart. |
3/ Should we be starting a stablecoin? |
Of the top five revenue earners – four (four!) of them are either stablecoins, or earning the bulk of their revenue through stablecoins. |
Kind of feels like someone should write a report on how they’re set to explode… ✍️ |
And before you say – we know! Revenue isn’t as sexy as token appreciation… |
But! Here’s why it’s a metric worth monitoring: |
Revenues support profits → profits help to grow the underlying app/protocol/project → growth contributes to token values over time. |
Beautiful, no? 🥲 |
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BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 |
CZ permanently lost his right to manage Binance under a U.S. settlement, but he still retains his shareholder status. This allows him to influence decisions from behind the scenes, though he can no longer hold an operational role. |
Japan’s top three banks are collaborating on a stablecoin platform for cross-border payments, aiming to speed up international transactions. The project, named "Project Pax," is expected to go live by 2025, revolutionizing how global payments are handled. |
Rune Christensen defended the introduction of a freeze function for the $USDS stablecoin, arguing that it’s essential for regulatory compliance, especially for real-world assets. However, any decision to enable the function will be voted on by the community. |
Sonic SVM is launching a $12.8M sale of 50,000 HyperFuse nodes to support its blockchain gaming platform on Solana. Node operators will help maintain the network and potentially earn rewards, with future airdrops also a possibility. |
Join forces with the Milk Man! We’re looking for a Twitter Specialist + Content Creator who can mix crypto knowledge with top-notch tweets. Think you’re the one? Apply today and let’s get this show on the road! |
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MILKY MEMES 🤣 |
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research. |