Just when most of us were hoping that COVID-19 was behind us, new infections have started to creep up again, along with hospitalizations. Part of that has to do with relaxed prevention measures—more people are going back to crowded workplaces, airports, and planes; fewer people are wearing masks; and almost no one adheres to social distancing guidelines any more (at least where I live in New York City).

Part of it may also have to do with new variants that are pushing their way into those public environments. Scientists are watching for Omicron descendants EG.5 and BA.2.86, among others, and the big question for the fall and winter is whether the updated COVID-19 vaccine, expected in September, will protect against these new viruses. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will soon decide which strain the updated vaccines will target, but the agency has already advised vaccine makers to start producing shots against the XBB.1.5 variant.

Here’s what the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and vaccine makers report so far:

• Moderna says that its updated vaccine produces a good amount of antibodies that can neutralize not just XBB, but also the EG.5 variant. Those findings are based on a study the company conducted with a small group of people. Pfizer and Novavax report that their new vaccines also neutralize the EG.5 virus, but in animal studies.
• The World Health Organization has defined BA.2.86 as a “variant under monitoring,” since it contains more than three dozen new mutations.
• The CDC expects that the updated vaccines manufacturers are preparing will also protect against severe disease and hospitalization if more people get infected with BA.2.86, but tests are ongoing.