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| Monday, December 12, 2022 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| If I learned one thing about Week 14, it's that Tom Brady has us right where he wants us. Sure, his team just got plastered by the 49ers 35-7, but that could actually be good news for Brady. The game on Sunday marked just the fourth time in his career that he's lost a game by 27 points or more and the previous three times it happened, Brady went on to WIN THE SUPER BOWL. Brady is playing 4-D chess while we're all are playing Boggle. |
| Actually, forget all that Super Bowl talk, because the Buccaneers might not even make the playoffs. Speaking of the playoffs, we'll be taking a look at the playoff race today, plus we'll be handing out our winners and losers and previewing tonight's game between the Cardinals and Patriots. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. |
| 1. Today's show: Week 14 winners and losers, plus full recap |
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| It's Monday, which can only mean one thing: I stayed up until 3 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson that touched on everything you need to know about Week 14, and let me just say, it's probably for the best that you listen. We covered all 11 games from Sunday, which means we likely spent some time talking about your favorite team. |
| One thing we do every week is hand out our weekly winners and losers from Sunday's action. Here's a look at who made our list. |
| Ryan Wilson |
| Winner: Brock Purdy. In a span of eight months, this Mr. Irrelevant went from being the final pick in the draft to beating Tom Brady. The 49ers only asked Purdy to throw 21 passes on Sunday, but he made the most those with 185 yards and two touchdowns. He also had a rushing touchdown on a day where the 49ers destroyed the Bucs 35-7. Putting your season in the hands of a rookie QB is usually a disaster waiting to happen, but the 49ers look like they could still be a dangerous team come playoff time, even with Purdy running the show. Loser: Geno Smith. After playing phenomenal football all season, Smith seemed bound for an eventual letdown and that letdown finally came on Sunday. In a 30-24 loss to the Panthers, Smith made multiple bad throws, including two first half interceptions that led to 10 points for Carolina. The first pick gave the Panthers possession at Seattle's 13-yard line while the second one put the Panthers at the Seahawks' 39. |
| Will Brinson |
| Winner: Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, Jameson Williams. Brinson probably could have put the entire Lions roster here. The Lions look like a dark horse playoff contender thanks to Campbell, who has this team playing its best football of the season. A big reason they're on such a roll is because of Goff, who is proving that he might be the QB of the future in Detroit. And let's not forget about Williams, who played in his second game of the season Sunday (he played just six offensive snaps the week before) and marked the occasion by catching a 41-yard TD with his first career NFL reception. Loser: Deshaun Watson. The Browns (5-8) have arguably looked worse since Watson returned and that's not what you want to see when you're paying a QB $230 million in guaranteed money. In his two games on the field, the Browns have only managed to score one offensive touchdown. |
| John Breech |
| Winner: Every team in the NFC South besides the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers (6-7) got beat down on Sunday, which was bad for them, but good for everyone else in the division. The Panthers (5-8), Falcons (5-8) and Saints (4-9) all picked up some ground on the Bucs thanks to the loss. The biggest of winner was probably the Panthers, who now control their own fate. If the Panthers win their final four games (Steelers, Lions, at Buccaneers, at Saints), then they'll take home the NFC South crown. Loser: The Titans offense. If the Titans fired their GM after their last loss, they might want to fire everyone after this loss. The Titans jumped out to a 14-7 lead against the Jaguars, but the offense let that melt away by turning the ball over FOUR times, which the Jags converted into 20 points. Ryan Tannehill was responsible for two of the turnovers while the other two were on Derrick Henry. When those two guys are BOTH turning the ball over, the Titans have no chance of winning. |
| Not only did we list our winners and losers, but we also recapped every game from Sunday. To listen to today's episode, be sure to click here. You can also watch the entire episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
| If you don't have time for a podcast, but would like something else to read, you can check out our story on the five wildest moments from Week 14 by clicking here. |
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| 2. Week 14 grades: Cowboys get a 'C' for unimpressive win, Lions earn an 'A-' for beating down Vikings |
| Every week I team up with six of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, we almost failed the Vikings and we weren't overly impressed with the Cowboys, who almost lost to the Texans. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Cowboys 27-23 over Texans (Click here for full recap) |
| Texans grade: B-. The Texans gave the Cowboys their best shot, but this is the Texans we're talking about, so obviously that best shot wasn't enough. Houston had Dallas on the ropes for most of this game thanks to Tremon Smith and Chris Moore. Smith picked off Dak Prescott twice, including an interception that set Houston up at Dallas' 4-yard-line with just under six minutes left, a pick that could have iced the game if Houston had been able to score. As for Moore, he came out of nowhere to catch 10 passes for 124. yards. This game was a fun ride for the Texans (1-11-1), but it's probably for the best that they lost since it now puts them one step closer to locking up the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Cowboys grade: C. The Cowboys (10-3) were on the cusp of being one of the biggest upset victims in NFL history, but then Dak Prescott saved the day with a game-winning 98-yard TD drive in the final minutes. The Cowboys got off to a hot start with a TD on their opening drive and they ended strong, but everything else in-between was pretty ugly, including their three turnovers. The defense didn't play its best game, but it did come up with a goal line stand with just under four minutes left to play that made the comeback possible. In the NFL, it doesn't matter how you win, it just matters that you won and the Cowboys stayed alive in the NFC East race with this win. |
| Lions 34-23 over Vikings (Click here for full recap) |
| Vikings grade: D. The Vikings defense has been having some serious issues over the past few weeks and those issues continued in Detroit. For one, the defense surrendered more than 400 yards for the fifth straight game and the unit got crushed by big plays, including two TD passes of more than 40 yards. Justin Jefferson, who finished with 11 catches for a franchise-record 223 yards, tried to carry the Vikings offense, but he got zero help from anyone else. The Vikings (10-3) have now lost three games this season and all three of those have been by double-digits, which doesn't exactly give you much confidence about this team's chance of winning games come playoff time. Lions grade: A-. Lions coach Dan Cambell decided to throw the kitchen sink at Minnesota this week and it worked. Not only did he call for a successful fake punt on fourth-and-8 from his OWN 26-yard line, but the Lions also iced the game with a third-and-7 pass to offensive tackle PENEI Sewell. Jared Goff continues to lead one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. Goff threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns for a Lions offense that has now scored 31 points or more in four of its past five games. Although the Lions (6-7) didn't bother trying to stop Justin Jefferson, they did shut down everyone else, and that strategy somehow worked. If the Lions can sneak into the playoffs, they could be a dangerous team. |
| As for the other 18 grades we handed out on Sunday, you can check those out by clicking here. |
| 3. NFL playoff picture heading into Monday night |
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| With the NFL season coming down to the home stretch, now seems like a good time to take an extensive look at the playoff picture heading into Monday's game. |
| Here's a look at the top seven teams from each conference: |
AFC
1. Bills (10-3)
2. Chiefs (10-3)
3. Ravens (9-4)
4. Titans (7-6)
5. Bengals (9-4)
6. Dolphins (8-5)
7. Chargers (7-6)
First teams out: Jets (7-6), Patriots (6-6) |
| Tonight's game could actually have an impact on the AFC playoff race and that's because the Patriots will move up to the seventh-seed if they can beat the Cardinals. At one point this season it looked like we might see all four AFC East teams make the playoffs, but with the Dolphins and Jets in a free fall right now that doesn't really feel like it has a chance of happening. |
NFC
1. Eagles (12-1)*
2. Vikings (10-3)
3. 49ers (9-4)
4. Buccaneers (6-7)
5. Cowboys (10-3)
6. Commanders (7-5-1)
7. Giants (7-5-1)
First teams out: Seahawks (7-6), Lions (6-7) |
| With their win over the Giants, the Eagles became the first team to officially clinch a playoff berth this year, which means there are only six spots left that are up for grabs in the NFC. |
| At the bottom of the NFC playoff standings, the Giants and Commanders are sitting at sixth and seventh spots, but that's likely not going to be the case much longer since the two teams will be playing each other in Week 15. The loser of that game will have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but the winner will be in great shape when it comes to making the postseason. It's also worth noting that the NFC South now feels completely up for grabs since the Bucs only have a one-game lead over both the Falcons (5-8) and Panthers (5-8). |
| If your favorite team is currently out of the playoff race, then you probably don't care about the playoff picture, and if you're in that camp, we have something else for you: A mock draft! You can check out Ryan Wilson's latest one by clicking here. |
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| 4. 12 crazy facts from Week 14 |
| Every Sunday night I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 12 crazy facts about Week 14: |
Mr. Irrelevant make history with another Mr. Irrelevant. The player taken with the final pick in an NFL Draft is known as Mr. Irrelevant and for the first time in NFL history, two Mr. Irrelevants scored in the same game. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy had a rushing TD against the Buccaneer while 2009 Mr. Irrelevant, Ryan Succop, had an extra in Tampa Bay's 35-7 loss to San Francisco (via ESPN Stats and Info) . Hurts so good. With one rushing TD against the Giants, Jalen Hurts now has 10 for the season, making him the first QB in NFL history with 10 rushing TDs in back-to-back seasons. He also joins Cam Newton as the only other quarterback in NFL history with multiple seasons of 10 or more rushing touchdowns.
High-flying Eagles. With 48 points against the Giants, the Eagles have now scored at least 35 points in three straight games, which is the team's longest streak since 2002. All-around awesome. With a 57-yard fumble return against the Chargers, Tyreek Hill is now the first player in the Super Bowl era to record a receiving TD, a rushing TD, a kick return TD, a punt return TD and a fumble return TD over the course of his career (via NFL Research). Hill also broke the Dolphins' single-season franchise record for receiving yards and he did it in just 13 games. Hill has 1,460 on the season, which broke the record of 1,389 that Mark Clayton set in 1984. Mac attack. Christian McCaffrey scored a rushing TD and a receiving TD against the Buccaneers, marking the 11th time in his career that he's pulled that off, which is tied with Jim Brown for the fourth-most in NFL history. Only Marshall Faulk (15), Lenny Moore (12) and Brian Westbrook (12) have had more.Vikings might be overrated. The Vikings have been outscored this year by one point, which makes them the only team in NFL history with at least 10 wins through 13 weeks to have a negative point differential. The 10-3 Vikings have a worse point differential than the 5-8 Jaguars (0) and the 6-7 Lions (+1). Justin Jefferson continues to be awesome. The Vikings receiver set the franchise record for most receiving yards in a game when he racked up 223 against the Lions. The previous record belonged to Sammy White, who totaled 210 receiving yards during a game in 1977.
Josh Allen moving up the record book. The Bills QB had his 24th career game with a pass TD and a rush TD, which puts him in a tie with Fran Tarkenton for the fourth-most in NFL history.
Broncos can't beat Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes is also now 10-0 against the Broncos, which makes him just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to face an opponent at least 10 times while winning every game. The only other quarterbacks in this exclusive club are Andrew Luck (11-0 vs Titans), Tom Brady (10-0 vs Falcons), and John Elway (10-0 vs Patriots)
Travis Kelce hits 10K. With 71 yards against the Broncos, Kelce officially hit 10,000 receiving yards in his career, making him just the fifth tight end in NFL history to hit that number. Kelce reached 10,000 yards in just 140 games, which is impressive when you consider the next quickest to that mark was Tony Gonzalez, who needed 177 games. Andy Reid doing it right. With the Chiefs' victory over the Jaguars, Reid has now reached 10 wins in eight consecutive seasons, which makes him just the third coach to hit that mark, joining Bill Belichick and George Seifert. Including his time with the Eagles, Reid has 17 career seasons with at least 10 wins, which is the third most in NFL history behind only Belichick (20 seasons) and Don Shula (20 seasons)
Evan Engram comes out of nowhere. With 11 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns for Jacksonville, Engram became the sixth tight end in NFL history with at least 10 receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns in a game. The other other tight ends to hit those numbers in a single game are Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Shannon Sharpe, Todd Christianson and Kellen Winslow Sr. |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
| 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for Patriots at Cardinals |
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| At 4-8, it seems like the Cardinals' season is all but over, so it will be interesting to see how they come out tonight against a Patriots team that has a lot on the line. The Patriots are currently 6-6 and with a win, they'll move ahead of the Chargers for the seventh-seed in the AFC, but a loss would be crushing for their playoff chances. |
| My good buddy Bryan DeArdo wrote our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the Patriots can win: If the Patriots are going to win, they're likely going to need a big game from Mac Jones, who will be going up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled to stop the pass this year. The Cardinals are 2-7 when they let an opponent throw for more than 200 yards and 2-1 when they can hold an opponent under 200 yards. If Jones gets hot early, the Patriots could roll to a victory in Arizona. Why the Cardinals can win: The Patriots have struggled to stop mobile quarterbacks this season, going 0-3 in games against Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Josh Allen. This means it's going to be up to Kyler Murray to keep the Cardinals offense moving. Murray's ability to run the ball might one of his most valuable assets tonight, so he can't be afraid to take off if a play breaks down. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from DeArdo by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview (odds via Caesars Sportsbook). You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here, but if you don't feel like clicking over, here's one prop from both of us for tonight's game. |
| ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-135): "Stevenson is tied for the team lead in targets this season with 67. The guy he's knotted up with, Jakobi Meyers, has been ruled out for this game, so he should see plenty of volume in the passing game on Monday night. Stevenson has gone over this receiving yards number in four of his last six games."ONE PROP I LIKE: Mac Jones OVER 224.5 passing yards (-142): Not only has Jones gone over this number in two of his past three games, but he gets to go up against a Cardinals defense that has had some serious trouble stopping the pass this year. Arizona is one of just eight teams this season that's surrendering more than 245 passing yards per game. I won't be surprised if we see something in the neighborhood of 240 to 250 yards tonight for the Patriots QB. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight in a game where the Buccaneers are currently favored by three points: |
DeArdo's pick: Patriots 23-20 over Cardinals
Sullivan's pick: Patriots 24-21 over Cardinals
My pick: Patriots 19-16 over Cardinals |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, seven of our eight experts are taking the Patriots to win. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Saints hit with $550,000 in fines for faking injuries |
| It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Saints punished for faking injuries. The NFL dropped the hammer on the Saints over the weekend, fining the team $550,000 due to Cam Jordan allegedly faking an injury. Of that total, Jordan was fined $50,000 for faking the injury, coach Dennis Allen was fined $100,000, the team was fined $350,000 and the defensive line coach (Ryan Nielsen) was fined $50,000. The Saints are appealing the decision over what allegedly took place in a 17-16 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 13. NFL cracking down on teams that fake injuries. The Saints weren't the only team punished for faking injuries. According to Pro Football Talk, a total of five teams have been hit with fines, including the Bengals, who were punished for a fake injury by Jessie Bates that allegedly took place in Cincinnati's 27-24 win over the Chiefs. Deebo Samuel could be out until the playoffs. The 49ers star suffered what appeared to be a high ankle sprain against the Buccaneers and the injury was bad enough that it could sideline him for the next few weeks. According to NFL.com, there's a very real chance that Samuel won't be back on the field until the playoffs. Russell Wilson suffers concussion. The Broncos QB almost engineered a huge upset against the Chiefs, but he didn't get a chance to finish the job because he got knocked out of the game early in the fourth quarter with a concussion . Wilson had a monstrous welt on his forehead after landing on his head and you can see what a monstrous welt looks like by clicking here.
Steelers lose Kenny Pickett to a concussion. The Steelers also lost their starting QB to a concussion. Pickett had to leave the game in the first quarter of Pittsburgh's 16-14 loss to the Ravens. After Pickett left, Mitchell Trubisky entered the game and promptly threw three interceptions. Bengals could be down two starters for the next few weeks. The Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, but it's not going to be easy to stay hot due to two key injuries. According to NFL.com, pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson is likely going to miss a few weeks after breaking his wrist in Cincinnati's 23-10 win over Cleveland. The NFL's official website also reports that Tyler Boyd could miss a "week or two" after dislocating his finger in the same game.
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