| | | | Monday, October 17, 2022 | | The first really tough week of byes is coming in Week 7, with the Bills, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings all out. That makes, by my count three top-12 QBs, four top-24 RBs, six top-24 WRs (and probably eight top-36 ones), and two top-12 tight ends who won't be available next week. | | That's gonna make for some tough lineup decisions, and if you didn't plan your team out well enough, it could really leave you in a hole. We'll help you with that all week, long, beginning with my early Week waiver-wire targets Sunday night. You may also find you are missing some contributors due to injury, and you can learn about those with my recap of all the injuries you need to know about from Sunday . | | This newsletter is all about sorting through everything else from Sunday. Or, at least, everything I think you need to know about. As always, if you've got any questions about what we saw Sunday or what to do for Week 7 and beyond, send them my way with the subject line "#AskFFT" to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com to get help with trades, your lineup, and more. And now, he's my Week 6 recap: | | | | Week 6 Recap | | | | Falcons 28-49ers 14 | | Winner: Marcus Mariota. The Falcons are winning in exceedingly unorthodox ways, and Mariota deserves an inordinate amount of the credit for that. Against a 49ers defense that was arguably the best in the league entering Sunday, Mariota accounted for three touchdowns despite just 14 pass attempts. That won't happen every week, but with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins on bye in Week 7, Mariota is probably going to be worth starting in most leagues next week. Loser: Jeff Wilson. The 49ers abandoned the run early in this one, and Wilson's fumble that turned into a defensive touchdown for the Falcons probably had something to do with that. He had just three carries from that point on, though Tevin Coleman still only played 12 snaps to Wilson's 29, so I'm not too concerned about Wilson's role moving forward. It was just a weird game script, but probably nothing more. One more thing: Kyle Pitts found the end zone, but this was yet another concerning game, as it was one of just three catches for 19 yards on three targets in the game. He played 14 of 17 pass snaps, and the latter is clearly the problem here: The Falcons just don't throw the ball enough for anyone to succeed in this passing game. There will be games where Mariota has to throw more, and Pitts' skill set (and, most importantly, his position) mean I'll probably just keep rolling him out there in my lineup. But it's pretty hard to feel encouraged, even if the results were decent this time around.One other thing: Deebo Samuel's discouraging running game usage persisted, as he had just two carries for the third straight game. I will note that he did at least get nine snaps out of the backfield, which is a positive sign after he had just one last week. Samuel still had 10 targets, good for a 25% target share even with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle having big games, and the backfield snaps are a positive sign. But he doesn't feel like as much of a slam dunk as he did when he was getting five-plus carries every week, especially near the goal line. Hopefully we'll see more of that moving forward. | | | | Patriots 38-Browns 15 | Winner: Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson played 85% of the snaps Sunday, and he played a similar share after Damien Harris left Week 5, so it seems like he's locked into a truly massive role until Harris returns. And we saw in this one how that paid off for him, as it ensured he got plenty of touches (19 carries, five targets) even when he wasn't going all that well, and that led to a couple of touchdowns. Damien Harris was limited at practice this week, so he could return for Week 7, but if not, Stevenson is probably going to be a top-five RB again.
Loser: Jakobi Meyers . Meyers had a fine game, with four catches for 60 yards, but his 12% target share was a significant letdown given the way he had dominated targets the prior two games he played. Hunter Henry and DeVante Parker were more involved in the passing game Sunday, which isn't really a concern -- Meyers is better than them -- but the emerge of rookie Tyquan Thornton was a little more concerning. We know who Parker and Henry are, and they aren't significant road blocks to Meyers getting a bunch of targets, but a talented, emerging young player like Thornton could be. It's something to keep an eye on moving forward, especially with a potential QB controversy looming in New England. One more thing: This game is more indicative of what I thought the Browns would look like this season, and why I was wary of Nick Chubb . The Browns are going to try to run in pretty much every context, but when that isn't working for them and they fall behind, Chubb just doesn't have many ways of contributing. He still averaged 4.7 yards per carry Sunday, however because the Browns ran the ball only 18 times and he had his usual passing game role -- which is to say, he wasn't really involved in the passing game -- Chubb wasn't great for Fantasy. There probably won't be too many more games where he has just 12 carries, but this is the kind of outcome that makes it hard for me to buy Chubb as a truly elite Fantasy option. | | | | Jets 27-Packers 10 | Winner: Breece Hall. The best thing for most running backs is to be on a winning team, and against all odds, Hall finds himself on one right now. I don't think the Jets are truly contenders, but they've been a lot more respectable than anyone really expected, and their upcoming schedule doesn't look too daunting -- at Denver, vs. New England, vs. Buffalo, at New England, and then vs. the Bears over the next six weeks, with only the Bills looking like a sure-fire loss. Hall has a role in the passing game that makes him look somewhat game-script independent, but the Jets being more competitive than expected is only good news, as seen by his 20 carries Sunday. He's the clear RB1 here -- Michael Carter had six carries and one target -- and might just be a top-12 option the rest of the season.
Loser: The Packers RBs. We're six weeks into the season and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have combined for three touchdowns, which is just a shocking statistic. But this just doesn't look like a particularly good offense right now. Aaron Rodgers was pretty awful Sunday, and while his thumb injury surely played a role, the truth is, this offense hasn't looked great for most of the season -- they've scored more than 22 points in regulation once in six games. Jones and Dillon split work pretty evenly most weeks, and while their combined passing role is nice, they'll need to find the end zone most weeks to make you feel good about starting them. And this doesn't look like an offense that is going to create many opportunities for that. One more thing: Since breaking out for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, Romeo Doubs has just 97 yards and a touchdown. Yes, he had a near-touchdown in Week 4 that would make those numbers look better, but even then, he has turned 14 targets into just seven catches for 50 yards over the past two games. He's playing a ton of snaps and getting the targets, but he just isn't turning them into production. The upside here remains considerable, but Doubs probably more of a WR4 moving forward. | | Colts 34-Jaguars 27 | | Injuries: Deon Jackson (quad) -- The Colts made Jackson a key part of their offense Sunday and he responded in a big way with 121 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and 10 catches, but he left with the injury in the third quarter and wouldn't return. With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines likely back in Week 7, Jackson's time in the spotlight is short-lived, but he showed the kind of upside you want from a handcuff running back, so if you've got a roster spot to play with, don't just cut him yet. Winner: Michael Pittman. I was a little bit worried about Pittman after a couple of pretty mediocre games in a row, mostly because Matt Ryan looked so washed up to start this season. Ryan wasn't great, but he held up to a very pass-heavy game plan and that was great for Pittman, who had a 28% target share in a game where Ryan threw the ball 58 times. Even with Alec Pierce's development, Pittman is the clear No. 1 option in this passing game, and though their typical run-heavy slant limits his upside relative to some of his peers, Pittman is still a borderline WR1. Loser: James Robinson . Robinson's usage didn't change much in this one, but there is some symbolic weight to the fact that Travis Etienne got the official start for the Jaguars Sunday for the first time in his career. Robinson still played 25 of 59 snaps and got 12 carries, but Etienne once again simply looked better than him. At this point, you're hoping for a touchdown if you start Robinson, but he's more game-script dependent than Etienne -- and he's probably just a worse player, too. Etienne is probably an RB2 moving forward for Fantasy; Robinson is a TD-or-bust RB3. One more thing: Do we keep making excuses for Christian Kirk ? In Week 4, he was coming back from an injury; last week, the Jaguars offense was just a mess. Sunday, he caught four of five passes for 24 yards in a game where the Jaguars scored 27 points, and if it wasn't for a touchdown, there would be a lot of panic here. Sure, Trevor Lawrence only threw the ball 22 times, but even then, Kirk drew even with Zay Jones in targets in a game where Marvin Jones was inactive, while Evan Engram led the team with six targets. Kirk looked like a potential No. 1 WR after the first three games; with just seven catches for 95 yards over the past three games, it's fair to wonder if he's even a WR2 moving forward. | | Vikings 24-Dolphins 16 | Injuries: Skylar Thompson (hand) -- Thompson suffered the injury at some point in the first half and went to the locker room to get the hand wrapped -- at one point, the camera was on him and it looked like he was bleeding. It's not clear what happened, exactly, but with Tua Tagovailoa expected back in Week 7, Thompson will return to being Miami's No. 3 QB. Winner: Tyreek Hill. Hill has at least 150 yards in three of his first six games with the Dolphins, and he's done it with three different quarterbacks leaving games early on four different occasions. The Dolphins are running an extremely concentrated offense, and Hill is just getting a ton of targets every week. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy moving forward, Hill is going to be in a very good situation, and might just be a top-six WR moving forward. He's looking like one of the very best values in drafts this season.
Loser: There really isn't a good choice for loser here, because these offenses don't really have many options, and the ones they do have were pretty good, for the most part. Raheem Mostert was a bit disappointing, but he still played 45 of 72 offensive snaps, including 30 of 55 passes, so I'm not actually concerned there. Adam Thielen might be the closest player who qualifies, because he only had 36 yards. But he's a touchdown-or-bust WR3 who scored a touchdown, so what is there to complain about? One more thing: Jaylen Waddle hasn't been quite as good as Hill, but he's still got 533 receiving yards on 30 receptions through six games -- a cool 1,500-yard, 85-catch pace. The presence of Hill and the changes to the offense have nearly caused Waddle's yards per catch to double from last year's 9.8 mark, and has totally rewritten the script on his upside. He might not be a WR1 because consistency has been an issue, but Waddle is a must-start player when healthy, and he proved it with this performance despite the ongoing QB issues. However, he did suffer a shoulder injury toward the end of this one that is going to be worth keeping an eye on this week. | | Bengals 30-Saints 26 | Winner: Joe Burrow. Burrow still didn't attempt many deep passes -- just two of his 37 attempts went 21 or more yards down the field -- but the Bengals offense found a way to move the ball efficiently despite that. Sure, it came against a Saints defense missing Marshon Lattimore, but beggars can't be choosers, and we've been begging for a game like this (300 yards, three touchdowns) from Burrow all season. We'll take it.
Loser: Taysom Hill . I mean, what did you expect? Hill played 21% of the snaps, which is right around where he typically is. He had five carries for 39 yards and completed two of four passes for 16 yards. That's actually tied for his second-most carries and by far his most pass attempts -- he had one total entering play Sunday. He's a touchdown-or-bust tight end who doesn't even catch passes. He'll score touchdowns and end up among the top-12 in tight end scoring some weeks, but good luck predicting when it'll happen. Tight end is shallow enough to where he matters, but not so shallow that you should ever be happy with him in your lineup. One more thing: I was very wary of starting Tee Higgins, but he ended up playing 47 of 54 snaps -- including a 90% route participation rate -- and very easily could have had a big day. He caught six of 10 passes for 47 yards, and while that isn't great, it was enough that you didn't really regret starting him. That's about all you could ask for after he played just 10 snaps the week before. Higgins should be just fine moving forward. | | Giants 24-Ravens 20 | | Injuries: J.K. Dobbins (knee) -- Dobbins' knee tightened up on him and he wasn't able to play in the second half of this one. Coach John Harbaugh said that the turf in Met Life Stadium might have played a role, but I don't see how you can trust Dobbins in Week 7 after watching this -- and the Ravens play on Thursday night in Week 8 with just three days off, so I'm not sure you'll be able to trust him then even if he's good next week. This is bad news, even for what might not be a serious injury. Winner: Wan'Dale Robinson . Robinson played just 14 of 62 snaps in his return from a knee injury, but the Giants made him a focal point when he was on the field, with three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on four targets. His role will grow in the coming weeks, and his per-snap usage here suggests he's going to play a significant role this season. The second-round rookie is the only player in this passing game with anything like upside as long as Kadarius Toney remains sidelined. Loser: Devin Duvernay. Duvernay has to be one of the most disappointing players of this week, with just one catch for 14 yards on five targets. With Rashod Bateman out in Week 5, the Ravens made a point of getting Duvernay the ball, funneling seven targets and three carries to him. That wasn't as much of a priority this time around, and it makes it pretty tough to trust Duvernay in Week 7 against the Browns even if Bateman's foot injury keeps him out. One more thing: This is a pretty staunchly pro-Lamar Jackson newsletter, and he still had 20.1 Fantasy points in this game, so I can't complain too much about his performance in this one. But I do have to note what has become a pretty alarming pattern: Jackson is really struggling in the fourth quarter of games. Jackson had two turnovers in the fourth quarter of this one, and is now 29 for 45 for 326 yards with four interceptions to just one touchdown in six games in the fourth. Baltimore has lost three games by 11 points total, and Jackson shares plenty of the blame for that, certainly. | | Steelers 20-Buccaneers 18 | | Injuries: Kenny Pickett (concussion) -- Pickett hit the turf hard in the second half and was replaced by Mitchell Trubisky, who actually played pretty well in leading the Steelers to the win. Pickett will have to be cleared from the concussion protocol to be able to play in Week 7, and that means he won't be able to practice until Thursday at the earliest. Winner: Chris Godwin. We've been waiting for the Godwin breakout game, and I think we got it Sunday. He played 90% of the snaps in this one, up from 52% last week, and he was the clear top target in the offense, with 12 of Tom Brady's 40 passes going his way. Godwin caught six of them for 95 yards, by far his best game of the season, and a good sign that he is, more or less, back to full speed after last season's torn ACL. He should probably be the Bucs top Fantasy WR the rest of the way. Loser: Tom Brady. Despite his top option looking like himself, Brady still wasn't great Sunday, finishing with one touchdown and averaging 6.1 yards per attempt against a team that was allowing a 5.7% touchdown rate and 7.8 yards per attempt entering the game, both of which ranked as the sixth-worst mark in the league. Through six games, Brady has just one with multiple touchdowns; he hasn't a had a stretch of six games with only one multi-touchdown game since mid-way through the 2019 season. Those of us who declared Brady finished during that season were made to look awfully foolish, but with the Buccaneers offensive line injuries, it's not completely unreasonable to ask if Brady can still be a high-level player. I'm not burying him, but I'm not feeling particularly confident in the 45-year-old right now. One more thing: There's no question the Steelers have a talented receiving corps, but it's hard to know who you can trust here. Diontae Johnson still tied for the team lead in targets Sunday, but turned his seven targets into just five catches for 28 yards. Chase Claypool matched Johnson's team-high in targets, but caught all of them for 96 yards, including a touchdown. And promising rookie George Pickens was a bust Sunday, catching just three of six passes for 27 yards. I'm still viewing Johnson as the top target here, but he's more like a low-end WR2, and I'm not going to trust either Pickens or Claypool at this point. | | Rams 24-Panthers 10 | Winner: Darrell Henderson. Henderson didn't dominate running back work with Cam Akers inactive, but he played a more-than solid role, playing 70% of the snaps, including 80% of the passing plays. He certainly benefited from the fact that Malcolm Brown is really the only other running back who saw the field, and while Brown can hold his own as a pass-blocker, he's not much of a pass-catcher. If Henderson can remain the lead rusher while dominating passing downs, he's going to be a starting-caliber RB, even if the overall offensive struggles limit his upside.
Loser: D.J. Moore. Moore is a good player. We've seen him thrive in bad situations before. That he can't overcome this one tells you just how bad things are in Carolina. I'm not giving up on him entirely, but this offense is just an absolute disaster -- at one point, they had six straight three-and-outs, punctuated by a drive where they picked up a first-down on the first drive and then went three-and-out. Keep Moore stashed on your bench and hope against hope that this offense can become just a normal-bad NFL offense instead of the world-historical disaster they've been so far. One more thing: Robbie Anderson was sent to the locker room in the second half of this one, after he took exception with being pulled off the field for a key play. He got into a shouting match with the team's wide receiver coach and was then sent to the locker room by interim head coach Steve Wilks, and while I can't know for sure his time with the team is finished, it's hard to come back from something like that -- especially when Anderson's name has been included in trade rumors. Not that it really matters for Fantasy -- Anderson didn't have a target in this game. | | Seahawks 19-Cardinals 9 | | Injuries: Marquise Brown (ankle) -- Brown suffered the injury on a late pass attempt where he landed awkwardly and may have gotten rolled up on. He was spotted after the game with crutches, and it's especially bad timing for the Cardinals offense, as they are just about to get DeAndre Hopkins back from his suspension. Winner: Kenneth Walker. In the Sunday morning Q&A stream on the FFT YouTube channel, I made the case for why Walker would be better than Dameon Pierce for the rest of the season, and I feel pretty good about it after this one. Walker just looks like a really good back, an explosive player with the long speed Pierce just doesn't really have. There were still some times during this game where Walker spent too much time dancing in the backfield, but he also showed his home-run potential, and you'll take that tradeoff. He looks like a high-end RB2 moving forward. Loser: Geno Smith. I finally decided to buy into Jared Goff just before his worst game of the season last week, and I did the same with Smith this week. My bad. Smith wasn't terrible in this one, but he failed to find the end zone and couldn't get either Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf going. If the Cardinals offense had been able to put up more of a fight, maybe he would have had a better game. One more thing: This Cardinals offense just isn't very good, which made Eno Benjamin one of the most personally disappointing players of the week -- I had him as a top-12 RB, and his 9.5 PPR points fell well short of that. Still, the process was right -- he got 15 carries and three targets against a good matchup. If James Conner (ribs) is still out next week, I'm still going to view Benjamin as a must-start guy. | | Bills 23-Chiefs 20 | Winner: Devin Singletary . The trend at this point is clear: When the Bills are in a close game, they're going to ride Singletary. He played 63 of 72 snaps in this one and has now played at least 73% in all three of the games the Bills have won by less than a touchdown. In the three they've won by 21 or more, he's played 59%, 54%, and 54% of the snaps. You won't be starting Singletary in Week 7 -- the Bills are on a bye -- but let's hope the Packers can keep Week 8's matchup close.
Fake winner: JuJu Smith-Schuster had a big game, going off for 113 yards and a touchdown, but he also had just five targets on 40 pass attempts. And his touchdown came on a 42-yard play where, somewhere, three Bills failed to tackle him. The Fantasy points still count, but this wasn't as promising a performance as the box score might lead you to believe. Loser: Clyde Edwards-Helaire . Well, I hope you were able to sell high when every single Fantasy analyst in America was telling you to, because the last few weeks have really highlighted the issues for Edwards-Helaire. He had just nine carries, giving him fewer than 10 in all but one game, and he didn't even make up for it with a passing game role this week. Jerick McKinnon doesn't dominate passing snaps, but he plays enough of them to limit Edwards-Helaire's upside, and the limited rushing role is even more of an issue in a game like this one. Edwards-Helaire is an RB3, nothing more. One more thing: It's perfect that Gabe Davis scored another long touchdown, this time from 34 yards out, while once again sporting a target share below 20%. It was 15% this time around, and he had three catches for 74 yards to go along with the score. Davis is averaging 27.4 yards per catch right now, and the highest in NFL history for a season of at least 50 catches is Eddie Brown's 24.0 in 1988. Davis is tied to maybe the best -- and certainly the biggest-armed -- QB in the league, so he's always going to have a chance to hit on these kinds of big plays, and I'll never feel comfortable betting against it. But there are going to be weeks where the big plays don't materialize for one reason or another and he disappoints. Probably. | | Eagles 26- Cowboys 17 | Winner: Miles Sanders . Last week in this post, I made a joke about how Sanders apparent value is so much higher than it was last season entirely because he's scoring touchdowns, but the thing is ... he's still scoring touchdowns. Or, at least, he did Sunday, giving him four in six games -- he had just 12 in his previous 30 games. Will he keep this pace up? Maybe! This is a very good offense, and while he does have competition for carries in every scenario, the Eagles do trust him down near the goal line. Sanders doesn't catch enough passes to make up for the times he doesn't find the end zone, but he'll probably do so enough in this offense to remain worth starting moving forward. Not in Week 7, though -- the Eagles are on a bye.
Loser: Dallas Goedert . I want to be clear that I'm not downgraded Goedert moving forward because of his two-catch, 22-yard game. It's just to note that, as good as both Goedert and this Eagles offense is, his usage will make him prone to the occasional bummer like this one. He had just five targets Sunday, but he also has just one game with more than six, so this wasn't really out of the norm. He relies on efficiency, not volume, and that means that there will be some weeks when the big plays in space aren't there. However, he averaged 10.9 yards per target last season, so it seems fair to assume Goedert will be more efficient than most tight ends moving forward. He's still a must-start option for me. One more thing: After the game, Dak Prescott told reporters he is planning to return in Week 7, which is what we expected after he participated in practice this week. He still has to be medically cleared, but if he is, the upside of this entire offense spikes dramatically. That obviously helps CeeDee Lamb (10 targets, five catches, 68 yards), but it's also a reason to keep holding on to Michael Gallup (seven targets, two catches, 18 yards) and Dalton Schultz (inactive with a knee injury). Gallup has top-30 WR upside and I still think Schultz can be a must-start TE if he stays healthy with Prescott. I want to see a full game of them together before I give up on him. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Operation Hat Trick | Who will make it to the podium? Only the best of the best will win. Watch the 66th annual UEFA Champions League Balloon d'Or Ceremony on Paramount+
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