| Good morning Voornaam, In yesterday's mailer, I had the joy of bringing you mostly good news. I love that. It just doesn't happen very often.
I'm afraid that today's headline story is firmly negative. Woolworths is being dragged down by its apparel businesses, while even the Food business is facing operating margin pressures. My bigger concern is that the excuses for the apparel business always seem to be based on external factors, while I see people on X pointing out quality and pricing concerns more than on-shelf availability. I think it's time for Woolworths to look in the mirror and take some accountability for the performance instead of trying to make it sound like it is everyone else's fault.
Over at Curro, they are struggling to fill the schools. Unlike at Woolworths, I think they actually are the victim of external issues. Emigration and a general decrease in the birth rate among higher income households is definitely not helping them to fill schools. But here's the thing: shouldn't they be more aggressive on get more bums on seats? Management's role is to respond to the external pressures in the right way.
To add to the fascinating day of updates, we saw strong stuff coming through from Attacq, Quilter and Spur, while Growthpoint is clawing its way back into the green. Cashbuild's margins are disappointing and the market didn't love the Old Mutual update either. Over at Trellidor, the earnings are much better but the cash flow story is a worry. Finally, Emira sold a large residential portfolio. They just omitted a rather important part of the announcement to help shareholders assess the deal.
Get my analysis on all these updates (plus the Nibbles) in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
Unlock the Stock is back with a bang this year. Afrimat led us out the gates, with the recording of the webinar available for you to enjoy at this link. The next company to present on the platform is HomeChoice, so be sure to register for free to engage with management directly next week.
There's a brand new episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast for you to enjoy. Hosted by Jeremy Maggs and part of the excellent Investec Focus Radio stable, the latest episode focuses on whether China is Trump-proof. You don't want to miss this one! Find it here>>>
Finally, the latest structured product from the team at Investec closes on 7 March, so you don't have much time left to pull the trigger on it. With the Chinese market offering a fascinating risk-reward dynamic, the structure addresses downside risks while offering enhanced (but capped) upside. Don't miss the opportunity to learn more about the product in this podcast>>>
Have a lovely day! |
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| INVESTEC: International Opportunities Limited - a Chinese equity structured product (closing on 7 March) |
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| China is a land that is fraught with risk and brimming with opportunity. With enhanced upside as well as downside protection, International Opportunities Limited is a structured product that seeks to balance the risks and rewards available in Chinese equity markets.
International Opportunities Limited offers 1.3x geared exposure to the CSI 300 Index, capped at 60% growth for a maximum return of 78% in USD. In addition, there is 100% capital protection at maturity in USD.
Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me to discuss the structure in detail. Get it here>>> |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Attacq, Cashbuild, Curro, Emira, Growthpoint, Old Mutual, Quilter, Spur, STADIO, Trellidor and Woolworths - all in here for your reading pleasure. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Nedbank - improved financial performance and progress towards ROE targets |
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| Despite a challenging operating environment in 2024, Nedbank grew headline earnings by 8% and saw return on equity strengthen to 15.8%. Nedbank has placed their results in Ghost Mail at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Watch out for the wellness wave |
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| | | For decades, alcohol and cigarettes have been the go-tos for taking the edge off life’s chaos. With Gen Z opting out of these vices, Big Alcohol and Big Tobacco are scrambling to stay relevant in a world where wellness is the new rebellion. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Is China Trump-proof? |
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| | | Tariffs may have a diminished impact on China, as the country has strategically restructured its supply chains to lessen its reliance on the US. This is according to Campbell Parry, global resources analyst at Investec Wealth and Investment International, on the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday available here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Abercrombie & Fitch has continued its downward slide this year. The share price has tanked 43% since the start of the year. Here's the wildest part: due to the turnaround efforts at the company, they are still up 672% over 5 years!
The days of this thing being very broken are behind us. Today, Wall Street wants to see ongoing growth. With sales for 2025 expected to grow by between 3% and 5%, they are well below market expectations of closer to 7%. The real risk lies in the Abercrombie brand itself, which posted tepid growth.
This is why hype stocks are such dangerous things. At some point, the hype will fade.
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on MercadoLibre, an excellent eCommerce and fintech platform in Latin America. This is one of the most impressive growth companies in the world. Although the valuation reflects that reality, it stiill deserves serious consideration in any growth portfolio. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this growth stock. |
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| Magic Markets: Private markets are a hive of activity |
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| | | Magic Markets: For companies seeking capital, founders wanting to exit their stake and investors who desire diversification and solid returns, private debt and equity markets offer a vibrant ecosystem. Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management joined us to discuss trends and strategies in this asset class, along with general levels of adoption by investors. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| Stock markets rebounded from lows on Wednesday after the White House announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for automakers that comply with existing free trade agreements. The exemption offers temporary relief to an industry heavily reliant on cross-border supply chains.
The US dollar continued its decline against most major currencies, with the euro reaching a four-month high. This weakness in the dollar has been particularly pronounced against the euro, which gained additional strength from Germany's proposed €500 billion defense spending package.
President Trump has expressed willingness to consider exemptions for other products from the tariffs, which took effect Tuesday. However, the broader implementation of duties on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China has intensified concerns about escalating trade tensions and their potential impact on global economic growth.
Oil markets stabilised Thursday after four consecutive sessions of decline, as investors processed the possibility of eased tariffs on Canadian crude imports. However, caution persists due to continuing tariffs on Mexican oil and major producers' plans to increase output. Meanwhile, gold prices edged higher, supported by the weakening dollar, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid trade uncertainty.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.30/$ | US 10yr 4.29% | Gold $2,921/oz | Platinum $974/oz | Brent Crude $69.76
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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