Worries at TFG

Good Morning Voornaam,

Happy Monday! To kick it off, there's a brand new episode of the Ghost Wrap podcast to help you catch up on the biggest stories last week on the local market. You need just a few minutes to get the latest on Bidcorp, Bidvest, MultiChoice, Argent Industrial, Renergen, Capital Appreciation and The Foschini Group. Brought to you by Mazars, you'll find Ghost Wrap here>>>

Here's some other stuff that I don't want you to miss:

Thrive with Trive

In case you missed the latest stock analysis from the team at Trive South Af rica, check these out:

Read the TFG numbers closely

Kudos to The Foschini Group (TFG) - I appreciate the level of disclosure in the reporting. It's rare to see a company give proper H1 vs. H2 analysis, splitting the year into halves and making it far easier to understand the numbers. One of the first things that a serious equity analyst does is an H1 vs. H2 split to look at underlying momentum, or cadence in the numbers. TFG made it easy.

This is particularly good reporting when this analysis tells an unfortunate story. The second half of the year (H2) was not great at all for the group and that concerning momentum has continued into the new financial year. Despite a recent rally in retail stocks as load shedding abated, there's a lot to be worried about with South African consumers.

Other major updates on Friday included ARC Investments and Novus. You can get all the details you need in Ghost Bites>>>

R18.70 - and counting?

By the end of last week, the rand had recovered by R1.20 against the dollar in the matter of a week. The lower R18.70s provided support for the rand several times before, so breaking below that level could be difficult. This is particularly true as we head into a pivotal week that includes central bank activity.

After inflation in the US has been on a downward trend in recent months, TreasuryONE notes an expectation in the market for the Fed to "skip or pause" the interest rate hiking cycle. The ECB is expected to hike by 25 basis points and the BoJ is expected to keep rates where they are.

But with much uncertainty this week, risk-off sentiment could halt the recovery in the rand.

Good luck for the start of a new week!

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