| |  | | Wednesday, August 11, 2021 | There's a lot to get to today, so I won't waste your time with a long introduction. You want to read about the best breakout candidates at wide receiver! And, of course, you need to know the latest about Amari Cooper, Darren Waller, and D'Andre Swift's absences from camp and the latest news from around the NFL. | | So, before we get to all that, here's a quick rundown of what you may have missed from the Fantasy Football Today team Tuesday, starting with a new addition to our podcast lineup: | - The FFT DFS show debuted Tuesday, with Frank Stampfl in the host chair and Mike McClure and Sia Nejad from SportsLine alongside him. They'll be publishing twice a week helping you set your lineups for DFS contests each week, and they kicked off the show Tuesday talking about strategies for cash games and an early look at Week 1 pricing. Subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts!
- FFT's favorite WR sleepers from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings and myself
- Heath's Believe it or not column , where he puts the hype surrounding Mecole Hardman and Zack Moss under the microscope
- A deep dive into WR ADP and a look at whether waiting for WR is the right call given the depth of the position
- Just in case you missed it, here's yesterday's FFT newsletter , where I looked into the best and worst offenses for WR and updated my WR rankings.
- Plus, if you've ever wanted to participate in the gigantic, super-fun Scott Fish Bowl league, you've got a chance to draft with and compete against me in 2022 while raising money for a great cause right here. Head over to the St. Jude Children's Hospital Ebay listings to check out more great opportunities to help us raise money and get unique opportunities to interact with the FFT team, from pre-draft Zoom calls with each of us to a spot in the 2021 FFT listener's league. You can even grab a beer with Heath! Check back all month as we'll be posting more great opportunities in the run-up to the Fantasy Football Today Draft-A-Thon on Sept. 1 on CBS Sports HQ. It's going to be a great time, and it's for a great cause.
| | And now, let's continue WR preview week with some breakouts: | | | | My favorite WR breakouts |  | Want to see breakout picks from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings? Of course you do! Click here for the full list. | - Jerry Jeudy -- If you're worried about Jeudy's 10 drops as a rookie, you're thinking about the wrong thing. The drops cost him production, for sure -- maybe he could have been a 1,000-yard receiver if not? -- but the fact that he was open so often all over the field as a rookie and kept earning targets despite the drops is what matters. He proved he could get open as the Broncos' top option as a 21-year-old rookie, and now he'll have Courtland Sutton flanking him and drawing defensive attention away. There are questions about the QB play in Denver, which holds me back from buying fully into Jeudy as a top-24 WR, but he's unquestionably got the talent for it. He was productive from a young age in college, he was productive despite some rough spots as a young rookie in the NFL, and now he's got the chance to blossom into one of the best receivers in the league. If the QB play takes a step forward in Denver -- Teddy Bridgewater as a backup plan for Drew Lock should raise the floor, at least -- don't be surprised if we're talking about Jeudy in the same breath as Lamb next season.
- Curtis Samuel -- Would I feel better about Samuel's chances of breaking out if he wasn't currently out of camp with a groin injury? Of course! On the other hand, this is your chance to buy him low. Samuel finished as WR26 in PPR points per game in 2020, and though he is switching teams this offseason, he's also reuniting with former coach Ron Rivera in Washington. Samuel didn't exactly put up huge numbers in his time with Rivera, but his 2019 season was very close to being a big success, and Rivera sounds like he's going to use Samuel in similar ways this season. Samuel saw 27 deep (20-plus yards downfield) targets in 2019, but only 22 of them were catchable, per PFF. Samuel was ninth in the league in total air yards that season and could have had much better numbers with better QB play; only 19 of the Panthers' deep passes were catchable in 2019 total. Over the last two seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick is at a 42.6% on-target rate. If Samuel gets anything like the role he had with Rivera in 2019 -- which also included 19 carries and 130 yards -- with better QB play, it's not a stretch to say he could be a top-15 WR this season. Also, here's a fun fact: Despite being in the NFL for two years longer, Samuel is actually 11 months younger than new teammate Terry McLaurin.
- Mike Williams -- Williams almost fits in the post-hype sleepers category, but I think there's been enough buzz about him this summer that he doesn't quite count. Still, he seems like one of the best high-upside fliers you can take in the WR4/5 range on Draft Day, because he's already shown the elite potential in his career. Williams has been consistently efficient -- 9.5 yards per target overall, 8.9 last season -- and has both a 1,000-yard and a 10-touchdown season under his belt. Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has said Williams will play the X role in the offense, the same one Michael Thomas played in the New Orleans offense Lombardi is porting over to L.A., and while you shouldn't take that to mean Williams is going to see 150-plus targets, don't be surprised to see a career-high in targets -- his previous high is only 90. If Williams sees an uptick in usage and can combine some of 2019's big-play upside success with his touchdown dominance from 2018, a career year could be in the works. I'm betting on at least that.
| | | | Injuries, News, and Notes |  | - Amari Cooper (ankle) was activated from the PUP list -- Cooper was recovering from ankle surgery, and while it seemed to go a little slower than hoped, there was never any real concern he was going to miss regular season time. He'll likely be worked back into practice over the next few days, but as long as he can avoid any setbacks, he should be in his usual role in Week 1 as the Cowboys' top target.
- Darren Waller has missed eight straight days of camp -- It's not exactly clear what's going on here. Waller has been spotted at practice working on the sidelines with trainers, but we really haven't gotten any details about what, if anything, might be the issue. The team's silence on this is strange, but you have to think we would have heard if there was something that might linger into the regular season. I will note, Waller signed a contract extension in 2019 that makes him just the 11th-highest paid tight end in the league right now -- with no guaranteed money left on the deal after this year. It sure wouldn't be shocking if, after following up his breakout 2019 with an even better 2020, he was angling for a new contract. He sure deserves it.
- D'Andre Swift has been limited by a groin injury -- There have been some headlines saying that Swift is missing "significant time" as a result of the injury, and while that's technically true, it might make things sound worse than they actually are -- Swift has been out there everyday, just not participating much in team drills. That's not to say this isn't something to be concerned about, obviously. It is! He's a high-end RB who is likely going to cost a second-round pick in drafts, and he's not healthy right now. It's not what you want! But, unless we get more details that paint a more pessimistic picture, I'm not going to worry too much. Yet.
- Aaron Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury -- It doesn't sound like this is serious right now, but you know how hamstring injuries can be. Jones' absence Tuesday allowed AJ Dillon and seventh-round rookie Kylin Hill to get more work with the first team, and Hill is certainly someone to keep in mind if Jones does have to miss time. Dillon would be an RB2 if he got the opportunity to start, but it's not out of the question Hill could work his way into that discussion if given the opportunity, especially for PPR leagues. Hill seems likely to make the roster as a kick returner, and he had 23 catches for 237 yards and one touchdown in just three games in 2020 at Mississippi State. Keep him in mind.
- Hunter Henry (shoulder) will miss at least a few weeks -- Henry, one of two Patriots tight ends making more money than Waller in 2021, suffered the injury after colliding with a teammate in practice Sunday. ESPN's Adam Schefter quotes a team source saying the injury is "not serious," so let's hope whoever he's got on the line for the Patriots is more forthright about these things than the team tends to be public. As of now, expect Henry to be back in time for Week 1, but it's not guaranteed, pushing him into somewhat risky TE1 territory. If Henry does have to miss time, Jonnu Smith could be a must-start TE option.
- Zack Moss is dealing with a hamstring injury -- Moss sat out team drills as a result of the injury Tuesday, the first we're hearing of it. That allowed Devin Singletary some added run with the first-team offense. The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia says Moss has been the better player in his competition with Singletary, but Singletary has shown to be capable in the past, too, so if Moss' injury ends up lingering, it could shift the balance back Singletary's way, at least to start the season. Of course, given that this has been one of the worst offenses in league for Fantasy running backs lately, anything that muddies the water is bad news, because if it's a timeshare, both lose.
| | | - Drew Lock is starting the Broncos preseason opener -- And Teddy Bridgewater is starting the second game. The headline looks a lot different with that note, huh? There's no real sign of who is leading in the competition to be the starter, but we should see both Lock and Bridgewater get some reps with the first-team offense, and we could get our first real sense of who is the favorite based on how they play Saturday against the Vikings.
- Could Sam Ehlinger start for the Colts in Week 1 ? -- Ehlinger started seeing first-team reps in practice Tuesday, and the sixth-round pick seems to have opened up a legitimate competition with Jacob Eason to be the No. 2 QB behind Carson Wentz. Which could mean the No. 1 QB for Week 1 if Wentz' foot injury keeps him out. All indications are that Wentz is expected to be back shortly after Week 1, if not in time for it, but Ehlinger has made up enough ground that Frank Reich repeatedly used the "for now" qualifier when referring to Eason as his starter. Neither is likely to be Fantasy relevant even if they do start, but you'd rather see one of them have to earn the job, at least for Jonathan Taylor's sake. UPDATE: Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, there is optimism that both Wentz and All Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson will be available for Week 1 against the Seahawks.
- Darrynton Evans has had a "big workload in camp " -- That's from Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing, who mentioned Evans working in on some new "wrinkles" for the offense. There hasn't been much room for anyone besides Derrick Henry in this backfield and we're still expecting that to be the case, but if the Titans do get Evans involved, it could cut into Henry's value just a bit.
- Rashod Bateman is out with a groin injury -- Per NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Bateman is being considered week to week "at the very least", and his status for Week 1 could be in doubt after he left practice Tuesday. Bateman has already missed some practice time while dealing with some general soreness in his first training camp, and now he's got this to deal with. It's certainly not a death knell for Bateman's value in 2021, but it's always tough for rookies to perform after they miss significant time in training camp. Hopefully he can get back in time for some game action in the preseason, but Bateman remains just a late-round dart throw. And, with Marquise Brown still recovering from a hamstring injury -- though apparently getting close potentially, according to The Athletic -- the remade Ravens receiving corps is down to Sammy Watkins right now. Maybe he'll surprise us with some early-season production. We've never been tricked by that before!
- Marquez Callaway has been getting peppered with targets in camp -- Callaway has been the top target for both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill in practice so far, which isn't terribly surprising given the absence of both Michael Thomas (ankle surgery) and Tre'Quan Smith (undisclosed). However, it doesn't sound like he's just been the WR1 by default, as The Athletic's Katherine Terrell has charted 23 of 91 targets during first-team drills going Callaway's way. That's not to say he'll have a 25.3% target share when the games actually start, but it's past time to include Callaway on your sleepers list at this point.
- Nelson Agholor has been limited at practice -- It doesn't sound like this is a big deal, at least. The Athletic's Jeff Howe said his early exit prior to team drills "was likely to plan." However, Agholor hasn't participated in team drills since last week, so this is one to watch.
- Mike Gesicki was activated from the COVID-19 list -- Gesicki was out of action for 10 days, and while there's still plenty of time to get up to speed, he's got to play catch up now. The Dolphins added Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller to the receiving corps this offseason, and that could bump Gesicki down two spots in the pecking order. He's a big, athletic target who could thrive if Tua Tagovailoa takes a leap, but he's just a fringe starting option at this point heading into the season.
| | |  | |  | | | | | UEFA Champions League winners Chelsea and first-time UEFA Europa League winners Villarreal face off in the 46th Edition of the UEFA Super Cup at Belfast's Windsor Park in Northern Ireland. Tune in today at 3 PM ET on CBSSN and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live
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