| It's a bad day to produce oil | Don't walk toward the light, stocks |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 10th in 3:09 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Saudi Arabia shocked investors by flooding the market with cheap oil, leading to its biggest drop in price in almost 30 years
  2. Our analysts examine whether “buying the dip” could be a good idea for long-term investors – Read Now
  3. Stocks fell all over the world, putting the longest-ever “bull market” at risk
1/3

Feeling Faint

Feeling Faint

What’s Going On Here?

What? Last week’s oil situation has evolved! The oil price suffered its biggest drop in almost 30 years on Monday, after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly flooded the market!

What Does This Mean?

Oil is caught in the middle of two at-odds countries right now. On one side, there’s Saudi Arabia – the biggest producer of the 14 nations that make up the oil-producing coalition known as OPEC. And on the other, Russia – the de facto leader of ten non-OPEC nations that have nonetheless cooperated with the group to control prices for the past three years. Combined, the two groups produce about 55% of the global oil supply.

But Russia – eyeing a chance to hurt US shale producers – rejected an OPEC plan to cut production late last week, which prompted Saudi Arabia to open the pumps in retaliation. Monday’s historic drop to a four-year low, then, is exactly what happens when a market battling with coronavirus-curbed demand suddenly hits an unexpected surge in supply.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Where do we start?
This oil price shock will reverberate for months. Shares of oil majors like BP and Exxon Mobil tumbled on the news, and bonds of already-vulnerable US shale producers soon followed. And that’s to say nothing of the impact on the oil-producing countries themselves. Only major importers – China among them – might breathe a sigh of relief following the flash sale. As for the economy as a whole: cheap oil might help kickstart global growth in the longer term, sure, but it also creates another headache for central banks trying to insulate their countries from dreaded deflation.

The bigger picture: Environmental collateral damage.
There’s one other potential loser: the planet. After all, why buy a new Tesla when you could drive 30% further per dollar in your geriatric gas-guzzler? And with the oil price near $30 a barrel, it’ll be harder and harder for businesses to justify investments in renewable energy too…

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2/3 Premium Story

Chips And Dip

Stocks around the world are tanking: the US market has dropped almost 19% in just 19 days. But while many investors are predicting imminent recessions in America, Europe, and elsewhere, some think things could quickly bounce back – and they’re sticking to their stocks.

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3/3

Not Lovin’ It

Not Lovin’ It

What’s Going On Here?

Investors cried themselves a river on Monday, after a global sell-off of stocks – one of the most severe in recent history – triggered a US stock market circuit breaker.

What Does This Mean?

Between the coronavirus outbreak, the ongoing oil supply battle, and rising geopolitical tensions, global stocks have taken a bruising. Those in Asia fell by more than 3%, in Europe and the UK by more than 5%, and in the US by an initial 7%. That Stateside drop was the most notable: it triggered a “circuit breaker” – the kind first introduced after 1987’s Black Monday stock market crash, which aims to halt stock prices in freefall – and automatically froze stock market trading for 15 minutes. If stocks had then continued to fall to the 13% mark, there’d have been another 15-minute break – and if they’d hit a 20% drop, the stock market would’ve shut down for the rest of the day.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Emotional support bank.
As investors sold off risky stocks, they clamored for the relative safety of US government bonds. That demand pushed their prices up and yields down, since the two move inversely. In fact, all US government bond yields fell below 1% for the first time ever. It now looks like that’ll push the American central bank to step in again: the Federal Reserve announced on Monday it’d increase its support for super-short-term loans to help keep markets working smoothly – and perhaps to give last week’s emergency interest rate cut time to feed into the economy at large (tweet this).

The bigger picture: Margin bawl.
One reason selling tends to lead to more selling is the existence of “margin calls”. That’s where brokers ask investors who’ve borrowed cash to boost their returns (i.e. those who have used “leverage”) to put more cash into their accounts, or face having their investments liquidated. To get that cash, investors sell off other holdings – compounding the downward trend.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Don’t bother just to be better than your contemporaries or predecessors. Try to be better than yourself.”

– William Faulkner (an American writer and Nobel Prize laureate)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: European Phew-nion

“As global trade tensions ease, is it reasonable to expect Germany’s manufacturing sector to rebound and lift the eurozone economy?”

– Tim in Washington, D.C., USA

“That’s not at all unreasonable on the face of it, Tim. Data released late last month even showed that the prolonged contraction of Germany’s manufacturing industry was beginning to ease, which – along with the easing of trade tensions you’ve mentioned – initially gave economists hope that it might soon reverse. But Germany’s economic growth is heavily reliant on China, whose economic output has been poleaxed this year by the spread of coronavirus and the disruptions it’s caused. With that in mind, then, a rebound doesn’t look likely anytime soon.”

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🌍 Finimize Community

🔥 Gather round the fire, kids

Want to learn how to build a financial plan for the long term, and overcome the behavioral challenges along the way? Join us for a fireside chat in London, and hear first-hand advice from Carl Richards – a financial planner who’s been featured everywhere from Oprah to the New York Times.

🇬🇧 London: Fireside Chat with Carl Richards, March 12th
🌎 Global: Female Financial Dialogue Series
🇨🇭 Geneva: Zero to Invested, March 10th
🇳🇿 New Zealand: NZ’s Financial New Leaf, March 11th
🇪🇸 Barcelona: Future of Fintech, March 11th
🇬🇧 London: Sustainable Investing Club, March 19th

📚 What we're reading

  • How one business democratized salaries (BBC News)
  • Beam me up, Scotty (Futurism)
  • Spooked airlines are running ghost flights (Gizmodo)
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