We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now.  It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends and to get a sense of what's true and what matters.  If you'd been checking in at any point in the past few days/weeks, you likely saw one of several attempts to remind readers that today's Fed rate cut not only had absolutely no implication for lower mortgage rates, but indeed that mortgage rates have often moved higher on the same day that the Fed cuts. That's what happened today.   Interestingly enough, mortgage rates were already slightly higher than yesterday BEFORE the Fed announcement came out.  The bonds that dictate mortgage rates are actually pointing to even higher rates tomorrow unless there's a decent improvement overnight. Given short attention spans, here's a bullet point list of why this paradox can exist: The Fed meets 8 times a year whereas mortgages can move every day The bonds that influence mortgages can move every second. That means mortgage rates had a long head start toward lower rates while the Fed waited for their meeting date A trader would be stupid to keep a tradeable rate/bond in higher territory if they knew as well as you did that the Fed was cutting rates today.  Why would they wait to trade mortgage rates lower?  Nothing was stopping them and that's why rates have dropped so much in recent months.
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September 18, 2024
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Mortgage Rate Watch
We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now.  It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends and to get a sense of what's true and what matters.  If you'd been checking in at any point... (read more)
MBS Commentary
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut.  If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps).  If it be not to come, it will be now: if it be not now, yet it will come.  Hamlet may have known about sp... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
“Q: What does a dyslexic pirate say? A: RRRRRRA!” Humor aside, many in our industry have faced adversity, dyslexia and more, and I received this note: “Rob, I really enjoyed Robbie’s interview with Glenn Stearns Monday. Is it on the web somewhere?” Y... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries