Hello ,

It’s not an easy environment out there for smart investors.

It doesn’t seem to matter what happens, stocks just keep… going… up.

Anyone who put it all in an S&P 500 index fund has been rewarded (so far), even though that is genuinely terrifying, dumb, “put it all on red” risk management.

Enter 2020…

Politics is going to consume everything in 2020.

The market is not acting like it is aware of this. And I’m concerned that investors are similarly complacent: “Hey, maybe past performance is indicative of future results!”

For example, nobody seems to be considering what happens if a guy who thinks he can plan and tax his way to utopia becomes president.

Before you get your pitchfork out, I’m not saying Bernie Sanders will become president. All I’m saying is that the probability of it is… not zero. Same with Elizabeth Warren.

And nobody, least of all the market, seems to be considering the more likely outcomes either.

What if Trump gets re-elected—how much further left will the opposition move then? What if a moderate Democrat (they do still exist) gets elected?

What is the stock market going to do in any of these scenarios, and what are investors meant to do?

At The Daily Dirtnap, I tackle these difficult questions from a neutral standpoint. Someone has to!

The Daily Dirtnap subscribers and me—we’re not apocalyptic. We’re not packing up canned fruit and heading for the hills, we’re not putting 100% of our capital in precious metals.

Just asking the tough questions, discussing probabilities, and planning accordingly.

So if you haven’t drunk the stocks-going-up-forever Kool Aid… if you’re fed up with trying to piece together facts from a range of partisan media outlets… and if you know that the key to successful investing is a deep understanding of human behavior (and misbehavior)… then you should really give The Daily Dirtnap a try.

And if you don’t want to? Cool—just please do me one favor…

Take a look at your portfolio and evaluate each position under each of the election scenarios outlined above (and a few more). Really think about whether anything in there could blow you up. I promise it will be worth your time.

Jared Dillian
Editor and Publisher, The Daily Dirtnap

P.S. There are only a few days left where you can get six months of The Daily Dirtnap for free (yes, free). Step this way and come on in, the water’s warm.