If you thought that we could go a weekend without breaking news, think again. This has been one of the most intense news cycles that I've experienced in my career. May we all salute Wolf Blitzer, who was merely trying to enjoy his brunch when the news came down. We're taking it all in stride, just like Time Magazine, and grabbing a coconut piña colada. Now let's get to it...
What's going on: President Biden announced he will no longer seek reelection, ending his campaign less than four months before Election Day. In a letter posted yesterday on social media, Biden — who’s recovering from Covid — said his decision was in the “best interest of my party and the country.” He subsequently endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, calling on fellow Democrats to “come together and beat Trump.” The announcement marks the first time a US president has ended their reelection bid this late in the game. The last incumbent to make a similar move: President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
What it means: Ever since his disastrous debate performance three weeks ago, Biden had made statements refusing to step down. But the pressure from dozens of congressional Democrats and Democratic megadonors to withdraw, as well as new polling showing voters wanted him out, became too much for the 81-year-old president. Biden will fulfill the rest of his term and is expected to address the nation and provide more details about his decision later this week. In the meantime, many Democrats — from former Presidents Clinton and Obama to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) — are praising Biden’s move to end his campaign. That’s all as the Democratic Party grapples with how to move forward (more on that below).
Democrats Enter a New Crisis: Replacing Biden at the Top of the Ticket
What's going on: Could a former prosecutor go up against a convicted felon? The answer largely lies with the Democratic Party’s delegates. When President Biden ended his reelection bid, he released his nearly 3,900 “pledged” delegates — earned from the primary election cycle. Those delegates, who are now free agents, can do a couple of things: They can rally behind Biden’s endorsement of VP Kamala Harris (which could be the most-likely outcome), even though they are under no obligation to do so. Or, they can vote for another candidate, opening the door to an open convention — a rare move in modern US politics and one that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) called “crazy.” If the Democratic Party can’t rally behind one candidate, then the party’s 700+ “superdelegates” would have to step in and vote until there’s a candidate who wins the majority.
What it means: The clock is ticking for the Democratic Party to figure this out. The Democratic National Convention in Chicago is less than a month away, happening from Aug 19 to Aug 22. Before Biden dropped out of the race, the Democratic Party planned to approve the president’s nomination ahead of the DNC. Now, it’s unclear how the party will proceed. Especially since there are a slew of potential candidates who could put their hat in the ring against Harris, complicating the process. Looking at you, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). On that note: Reuters reported that Harris’ campaign has been trying to secure delegates’ support in efforts to seal the deal. Meanwhile, The New York Times says it would be difficult for a candidate to seriously challenge Harris, as she’ll have access to the campaign’s tens of millions of dollars in cash reserves.
What's going on: A handful of polls conducted earlier this month appear to show VP Kamala Harris faring about the same as President Biden against former President Trump. For months, Biden has trailed behind Trump by a slim margin. The New York Times’ national polling averages found Harris (who is two decades younger than the president) to have a slight edge — standing two percentage points behind Trump compared to Biden’s three. Harris made history in 2020 when she became the first woman, first Black American, and first South Asian American to serve as VP. Voters had mixed feelings about yesterday's announcement, with some excited to back a woman for the presidency while others weren’t as confident in Harris’ ability to beat Trump.
What it means: Biden’s endorsement could put Harris on a path toward becoming the nation’s first female president. Top Democrats are already standing behind Harris, with many pointing to her record. As VP, Harris has been tasked with addressing the root cause of migration from Latin America, securing voting rights, and protecting the right to abortion nationally. But despite the political experience under her belt, endorsements, and access to campaign money, some political analysts warn that Americans might not be ready for a female president. It also doesn’t help that she has struggled to clearly define a lane for herself as VP and has faced criticism for her time as a prosecutor. Meanwhile, Trump isn’t convinced that Harris is a threat to his campaign.
Following President Biden’s announcement that he is exiting the race, we spoke with Julia Azari, a professor of political science at Marquette University, to ask:
Where do the Democrats stand after this decision? It's been a chaotic few weeks for the party.
The party is very focused on winning and sees Biden as no longer viable because of the June debate, and the weeks of negative news coverage. I’m not sure I would describe what’s happened as chaos so much as a long, messy period of coordination to try to prevent further chaos. And we don’t know what will happen next, but it looks like the party is closing ranks around Vice President Harris.
What does this tell you about the state of our political system overall?
I think it says the nomination process has made it too difficult to challenge incumbent presidents and is too presidency-centered in general. And presidential candidates are human, so we should expect that sometimes parties will need to act together to make decisions.
Is it a risky move to replace the nominee so late in the game?
All moves are risky, but this must have seemed like the less risky option. Polls showed alternatives [to Biden] performing better among people who disliked both Trump and Biden, for example.
Could a Harris challenger win over the delegates?
In theory, yes, but delegates tend to be the most loyal party players and are unlikely to stir the pot unless there’s a reason. Right now, we’re seeing all different corners of the party come out for Harris — moderates, progressives, and the Congressional Black Caucus. It looks like presenting a united front will be very important, though it’s early and, of course, this could change.
PS: This interview was edited for length and clarity.
Featured Expert
Julia Azari
Professor of Political Science, Marquette University
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