| | | | Monday, September 11, 2023 | | It's so much easier to do Fantasy Football rankings before Week 1, when all we have are educated guesses about how the upcoming season is going to go. Of course, the downside there is, Week 1 rankings might be the easiest to get wrong, and I got a lot wrong in Week 1. | | I was way too high on Skyy Moore. I was too high on Marvin Mims, who ended up barely playing in his Broncos debut. I thought Jahmyr Gibbs would play a much bigger role in both phases of the offense, and I didn't buy the preseason chatter than Kenneth Gainwell would be the lead rusher for the Eagles on the other side. And those are just a few of my misses. | | The problem with Week 1 is, we're making assumptions about not just which players will be productive, which is hard enough; we're also trying to guess how coaches will use players. In some instances, we have good reasons for the assumptions we make, but even those can go sideways. For instance, I knew there was a good chance Christian Kirk was going to be the No. 3 WR in Jacksonville based on preseason usage, but I didn't see them opting to play with two or fewer WRs on the field for 32 snaps, a number they only topped three times all of last season. | | | | There's so much we still don't know, and Week 1 is just the first data point, not the be-all, end-all. It showed how off some of our assumptions might have been, but it's also just one game, and anything can happen in one game – remember Justin Jefferson having just 14 yards in Week 3 of last season? Of course you don't! Because he followed that up with 22 catches for 301 yards over his next two games. | | Which is to say, it's important that we learn from Week 1, but it's also important that we don't learn too much from Week 1. And the fun thing is, we usually don't know which Week 1 lessons matter and which ones don't until, like, Week 4. Predicting literally thousands of variables at a time is hard to do, as it turns out. | | Last night, I looked back at the top early waiver-wire targets and biggest winners and losers from Week 1 , but now we're turning our attention to Week 2. In today's newsletter, I've got my rankings for Week 2, along with my biggest questions for each position looking ahead to the upcoming week and beyond. Some of these answers will look brilliant in a month; some will look ridiculous by 1:34 pm Sunday. That's the nature of the game! | | In tomorrow's newsletter, we'll have Jamey Eisenberg's full waiver-wire breakdown for you, plus some trade advice from myself and Dave Richard. If you've got trade questions, send them my way at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com to be included – and you can send me waiver-wire, lineup, and any other questions you might have to be included later in the week, with the subject line "#AskFFT" so I can keep track of your questions. | | For now, here's your first look at the Week 2 rankings: | | | | Week 2 QB Rankings | | | | Biggest question | | Is Anthony Richardson just a QB1 already? | | I thought the Colts might try to hide Anthony Richardson a bit in his first game, but they did no such thing. Richardson dropped back to pass a whopping 45 times in Week 1, and while his intended air yards per attempt were low at 5.8, it still suggests a level of trust in their rookie that raises the ceiling of this offense for everyone involved, but especially Richardson. Unsurprisingly, Richardson ran the ball 10 times Sunday, including three times from inside the 10-yard line, and that establishes a nice floor for him – I'd guess his 40 yards Sunday will be on the low side of the norm moving forward. I don't expect to see 37 passes from Richardson every week, but it's noteworthy that Justin Fields didn't attempt that many passes in the game until his 12th start. The Colts aren't coaching scared, and it's enough to trust Richardson every week as a starter if you have to. | | For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. | | Top-12 QBs for Week 2 | | Josh Allen vs. LVPatrick Mahomes @JAX Jalen Hurts vs. MINLamar Jackson @CINJustin Fields @TB Joe Burrow vs. BALJustin Herbert @TEN Trevor Lawrence vs. KC Tua Tagovailoa @NEGeno Smith @DET Kirk Cousins @PHIDak Prescott vs. NYJ | | Week 2 RB Rankings | | Biggest questions | | Is Bijan Robinson really in a committee? | | I don't want to complain too much about a game where Robinson scored 20.3 PPR points in his NFL debut, but how can we not complain about Tyler Allgeier having five more carries and two more touches than Robinson? Allgeier is a solid player, but Robinson is an elite prospect who the Falcons invested a No. 8 overall pick and he watched as Allgeier scored two touchdowns. It's worth noting that one of those touchdowns came after Robinson ripped off a 21-yard gain to put the Falcons inside the 5-yard line, but it's still frustrating that he came out for Allgeier immediately after that. It's just Week 1, and Robinson still ran routes on 17 of 22 dropbacks, so it's not time to panic yet. But the case for Robinson being a top-three RB was that he might rush for 1,400 yards and have a big role in the passing game to go along with it. If Allgeier is going to play this prominent of a role, it might make it tough for Robinson to hit his ultimate ceiling. I want to have faith that Arthur Smith will eventually realize that giving Allgeier carries at Robinson's expense is holding his offense back, but … well, just look at how Smith has used Kyle Pitts and Drake London and you realize you can't just make that assumption. | | How will the Ravens backfield operate without JK Dobbins? | | I'd guess they're going to add another running back, first of all. It'll likely be Melvin Gordon, who is on the team's practice squad, but it could very well be Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt in free agency. Either way, at least in the short term, Gus Edwards will likely be the lead runner here, with Justice Hill being more of a complementary piece despite his two touchdowns Sunday. Edwards started three of the four drives after Dobbins' injury, and I'm projecting him as an RB3 for Week 2, one who likely needs a touchdown to score double-digit points in PPR formats; Hill is more like an RB4, especially since I don't expect him to be used much in the passing game. | | For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. | | Top-24 RBs for Week 2 | | Christian McCaffrey @LARAustin Ekeler @TEN Saquon Barkley @ARIBijan Robinson vs. GBNick Chubb @PIT Josh Jacobs @BUFTony Pollard vs. NYJ Derrick Henry vs. LAC Joe Mixon vs. BALMiles Sanders vs. NO Travis Etienne vs. KCAaron Jones @ATL Kenneth Walker @DET David Montgomery vs. SEAAlexander Mattison @PHI Dameon Pierce vs. INDRachaad White vs. CHI Najee Harris vs. CLE Rhamondre Stevenson vs. MIAJahmyr Gibbs vs. SEA Javonte Williams vs. WASJames Cook vs. LV James Conner vs. NYG Kenneth Gainwell vs. MIN | | Week 2 WR Rankings | | Biggest questions | | Is Puka Nacua for real? | | Nacua garnered positive reviews out of Rams camp all summer long, but the Fantasy community didn't really take notice outside of deeper sleepers lists because he was just a fifth-round pick without an elite athletic profile. But he showed the ability to earn targets at a very high rate, something SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs highlighted throughout the offseason . Nacua went out and caught 10 of 15 passes for 119 yards and was this close to having an even bigger game. It was just one game, but he ran routes on 35 of 39 snaps in his NFL debut and clearly had Matthew Stafford's trust. Stafford looked terrific after a healthy training camp, and defenses are going to have to respect his ability and willingness to pull the trigger on deep passes. That should leave the short and intermediate areas of the field open for Nacua, who looks like the clearest Cooper Kupp analog in this offense. Will he be a must-start, superstar Fantasy option moving forward? That's unlikely, especially once Kupp is back, but I've moved him into the WR3 range for Week 2 already, and I think there's a decent chance he ends up being the best waiver-wire option at the wide receiver position this season. I'm extremely pumped about what he showed. | | Is Drake London's breakout already off the rails? | | This kind of quote is fine when you're winning, and the Falcons did, in fact, win Week 1 (against a bad Panthers team with a QB making his NFL debut, but hey, 1-0 is 1-0). But I don't believe London is going to be happy with one target and no catches every week, and I certainly won't be. But this is why I didn't necessarily buy the idea that London was a Fantasy superstar in the making. Arthur Smith is ideologically committed to winning (or, you know, as has happened more in his career, losing) his way, and I just feel like that's always going to lead to these kinds of games happening more than we want. You can say the Falcons are trying to win with the personnel they have, but they also chose to go into the season with Ridder as their QB, having made zero attempts to improve the position. This is how they want to play, and games like this aren't a mistake. London will have better days ahead, I can't help but feel like both he and Pitts are hurtling toward another disappointing season. | | For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. | | Top-24 WRs for Week 2 | | Justin Jefferson @PHIJa'Marr Chase vs. BAL Tyreek Hill @NEAmon-Ra St. Brown vs. SEA Stefon Diggs vs. LV CeeDee Lamb vs. NYJCalvin Ridley vs. KC Davante Adams @BUFA.J. Brown vs. MIN Garrett Wilson @DAL Jaylen Waddle @NEKeenan Allen @TEN Tee Higgins vs. BALDevonta Smith vs. MIN Chris Olave @CAR DK Metcalf @DETTyler Lockett @DET Amari Cooper @PITDeAndre Hopkins vs. LAC Deebo Samuel @LAR Brandon Aiyuk @LARChris Godwin vs. CHI Terry McLaurin @DEND.J. Moore @TB | | Week 2 TE Rankings | | Biggest question | | How did the rookies fare? | | Dalton Kincaid hasn't played yet, and he was the most hyped of the class, but let's do a quick look at the other rookie tight ends from the first two rounds of the NFL Draft in their NFL debuts: | | Sam LaPorta, Lions: Ran 26 routes in the opener; Brock Wright was second among Lions tight ends with five. He's clearly the top guy at the position and his five targets in Week 1 feels like a safe assumption moving forward. He looks like a low-end PPR starter already. Michael Mayer, Raiders: Only ran nine routes, while Austin Hooper ran 16. It might not take much for Mayer to claw out a larger role, but it's not there yet. He's not on re-draft radars yet. Luke Musgrave, Packers : Played 75% of the snaps and ran a route on 24 of 30 pass plays, the highest for any player on the team. Had a real chance for two touchdowns, but he didn't track the ball well on two deep passes and stumbled, catching one and letting the other go over his head. There's real potential here for Musgrave to be a contributor for Fantasy, though only earning a 15% target share with Christian Watson out and Romeo Doubs limited suggests he might be a frustrating weekly start, since he might need to rely on big plays. Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys : Just a 27% snap share. Clearly behind Jake Ferguson, but was also behind Peyton Hendershot in Week 1. He's not on re-draft radars yet. Brenton Strange, Jaguars: Was used primarily as a blocker. With Evan Engram under contract for three years, Strange likely won't matter for a while, if he ever does. | | For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. | | Top-12 TEs for Week 2 | | TJ Hockenson @PHIDarren Waller @ARI Dallas Goedert vs. MINGeorge Kittle @LAR Tyler Higbee vs. SF Kyle Pitts vs. GBEvan Engram vs. KCDavid Njoku @PITIsaiah Likely @CIN Juwan Johnson @CARHayden Hurst vs. NO Zach Ertz vs. NYG | | | | | | | | Morning Footy | | CBS Sports Golazo Network | CBS Sports Golazo Network’s flagship AM show streams live M-F at 7 AM ET. Hosts Susannah Collins, Charlie Davies, Nico Cantor, Alexis Guerreros and reporter Jenny Chiu help fans get their day started with highlights, interviews and the biggest soccer storylines.
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