As I'm writing this, it's 4:45 pm Monday on the east coast, and we still have no idea who is going to be playing quarterback for the Bengals tonight. 

If it were up to me, there's no way Joe Burrow would be playing just a week after aggravating an injury that cost him nearly the entirety of training camp and the preseason, even if the downside risk is that the Bengals might fall to 0-3. The long-term ramifications of a more serious setback are way too great to even consider taking that risk.

But it's not up to me, and it sounds like Burrow really might play. Most lineup decisions for this week are already over, but with two Monday night games, there might be a handful of you sweating it.

And all I can say is: I'm acting like Burrow won't play. I'm treating Ja'Marr Chase like a low-end WR1 and Tee Higgins more like a boom-or-bust WR2/3, and I'd start Puka Nacua over Higgins (and wouldn't be totally opposed to starting him over Chase if you're really concerned about Jake Browning). I'm starting both Eagles WRs over both Bengals WRs, and I'd start both Buccaneers guys over Higgins, too. 

It might not work out. Burrow may play and look great, and both Chase and Higgins could feast on an inexperienced Rams secondary. Or maybe Burrow is out and Chase and Higgins are still great, or maybe Higgins ends up being the better option and Chase can't get going, as has been the issue through the first two games. It's unfortunate that even three hours or so away from kickoff, there's still so much uncertainty here, and it's why I tried to avoid this situation when setting my lineups Sunday.

Okay, I'm being told by my editors that it is, in fact, time to move on to Week 4. This is, of course, a little harder to do when we've still got four teams who haven't played yet, featuring some of the biggest names in Fantasy. As we saw last Monday night, there's always the potential in these games for some rankings-shattering news.

Which is to say, the rankings in today's newsletter are not set in stone. They're in pencil, and I'll be updating them throughout the week as we get more news about who is in, who is out, and who I might just be too low or too high on. Make sure you bookmark these rankings links, because I'll have major updates Thursday afternoon and Sunday morning to help you make those tough lineup calls.

Tomorrow, of course, we'll have Jamey Eisenberg's full waiver-wire breakdown, plus a whole bunch of trade advice for you as you continue to build your roster, whether you're about to be 0-3 or 3-0. 

For now, here's your first look at the Week 4 rankings: 

Should Tua Tagovailoa be in that elite tier at QB?

Tagovailoa had 309 yards and four touchdowns in a game where Miami legitimately could have stopped trying by the end of the first quarter and won easily; backup Mike White added another 67 yards and a touchdown on a bomb to a player signed from the practice squad. Yes, two of Tagovailoa's touchdowns came on shovel passes that were essentially just fancy running plays; he was also playing without Jaylen Waddle, who might be a top-12 WR in the entire league in his own right.

This offense is just operating on a different level than anything else we're seeing in the NFL . While a ton of other teams have been working to find answers to the two-high shell defenses most of the league has adopted to take away big plays in the passing game, the Dolphins have kept right on rolling, using big, two-back-and-a-tight-end formations to keep defenses from loading up against the pass, while still creating chunk plays down the field thanks to their speed at WR and Tagovailoa's accuracy and timing. It's a true joy to watch. And, with De'Von Achane's emergence Sunday, defenses might have an even tougher time focusing on the pass.

Tagovailoa has now played 16 games at QB for the Dolphins with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill, and he's passed for 4,572 and 33 touchdowns, averaging 22.3 points per game in six-point-per-pass-TD leagues, and I'll note that that is without taking away any of the games he left because of concussions last season. Take those games out and he jumps up to 25.9 points per game. That's still south of what I'd expect most weeks from Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, but it puts him right at the next tier - though maybe just a tad lower for the matchup against Buffalo this one.

But at this point, it sure looks like you got a massive edge at the QB position without having to pay for it with Tagovailoa. Now we just have to hope he can stay healthy. 

For more on the state of the position for Week 4, head here. 

1. Patrick Mahomes @NYJ
2. Josh Allen vs. MIA
3. Jalen Hurts vs. WAS
4. Lamar Jackson @CLE
5. Justin Herbert vs. LV
6. Tua Tagovailoa @BUF
7. Kirk Cousins @CAR
8. Trevor Lawrence vs. ATL
9. Justin Fields vs. DEN
10. Deshaun Watson vs. BAL
11. Geno Smith @NYG
12. Daniel Jones vs. SEA

Is Devon Achane a sell-high candidate? 

Achane is going to be the biggest waiver-wire target for Week 4, and I truly believe there is top-15 upside for him in this offense. His big-play ability was evident from the college tape well before he ran a 4.32 40-yard dash, and it was on full display in his breakout game Sunday, as he had three runs of 25-plus yards and added two receiving touchdowns. Miami's offense is able to run big formations, with a fullback and a tight end while still forcing defenses to respect the big play in the passing game, which creates tons of opportunities for their speedy backs, and Achane is the speediest of the bunch.

But for those of you who already had Achane stashed, this is a potential opportunity to turn him into more of a sure thing. Because, while I love what Achane showed Sunday, this is a Dolphins  offense that has preferred to use multiple backs under Mike McDaniel. Achane might be so dynamic that he changes that, but given that he already suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason, I'd bet this is going to remain a committee moving forward. As Sunday showed, Achane can still be a very useful Fantasy option even as part of a committee, and even if he doesn't score four touchdowns, which seems unlikely every week. 

Which is to say, there's certainly a sell-high window here, but I think the upside is considerable enough that you probably need to get a top-15 type of back in return. And there just aren't a ton of guys I feel confident fit that description right now and are readily available in trade. I think Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs are probably two names that apply, given their struggles early on, and I think I would make that move for Achane – especially for Jacobs. That's the kind of upside I would be trying to shoot for if I move Achane; otherwise, I'm perfectly content to stick that found money in my wallet. 

For more on the state of the position for Week 4, head here. 

1. Christian McCaffrey vs. ARI
2. Tony Pollard vs. NE
3. Bijan Robinson @JAX
4. Josh Jacobs @LAC
5. Kenneth Walker @NYG
6. Joe Mixon @TEN
7. Derrick Henry vs. CIN
8. Alvin Kamara vs. TB
9. Travis Etienne vs. ATL
10. Miles Sanders vs. MIN
11. Zack Moss vs. LAR
12. Jahmyr Gibbs @GB
13. James Cook vs. MIA
14. Rhamondre Stevenson @DAL
15. Rachaad White @NO
16. Kyren Williams @IND
17. Alexander Mattison @CAR
18. D'Andre Swift vs. WAS
19. James Conner @SF
20. Jerome Ford vs. BAL
21. Javonte Williams @CHI
22. Raheem Mostert @BUF
23. Devone Achane @BUF
24. Dameon Pierce vs. PIT

Are we buying Keenan Allen's breakout? 

Generally speaking, wide receivers don't break out at 31. They're usually on the downside of their careers by that point, and more likely to hit the age-related cliff and fall off than enjoy the best seasons of their careers. For that reason alone, you should probably view Allen as a sell-high candidate in Fantasy Football coming off maybe the best game of his career. 

But this is definitely not one of those situations where I'm pounding the table telling you to sell. The concerns with Allen are real – he's 31 and he missed time with recurring hamstring injuries last season, so there's a significant risk of him suffering an injury-related decline. But from a pure performance perspective, I don't think things have ever been set up as well for Allen as they currently do. 

He's tied to a young QB playing at an incredibly high level – Justin Herbert leads the NFL in NextGenStats' completion percentage above expected, which perfectly matches the eye test so far because Herbert has been outstanding. And  Kellen Moore's new offense has the Chargers  ninth in total plays and 10th in pass rate through three games, and Herbert has that high completion percentage despite the highest average intended air yards of his career. This is what we hoped to see from the Chargers, Allen is still showing the ability to get open nearly at will, while also seeing a few more downfield targets than we're used to.

Will Allen slow down? Probably, yeah – it's unlikely he'll keep up a 181-catch, 2,278-yard pace for a full season. But I really do think the combination of Herbert's play and the new offense could put him in line for a career-best season. We don't normally expect that from 31-year-olds, but this might be an exception.

For more on the state of the position for Week 4, head here. 

1. Justin Jefferson @CAR
2. Stefon Diggs vs. MIA
3. Tyreek Hill @BUF
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown @GB
5. Keenan Allen vs. LV
6. Davante Adams @LAC
7. CeeDee Lamb vs. NE
8. Puka Nacua @IND
9. A.J. Brown vs. WAS
10. Calvin Ridley vs. ATL
11. Devonta Smith vs. WAS
12. Chris Olave vs. TB
13. Amari Cooper vs. BAL
14. Deebo Samuel vs. ARI
15. Ja'Marr Chase @TEN
16. Michael Pittman vs. LAR
17. Tyler Lockett @NYG
18. Michael Thomas vs. TB
19. Mike Evans @NO
20. Chris Godwin @NO
21. Christian Kirk vs. ATL
22. George Pickens @HOU
23. DK Metcalf @NYG
24. Tank Dell vs. PIT

Are there any buy-low candidates? 

The good news, I guess, is that there's kind of nothing but buy-low candidates at tight end, at least based on preseason expectations, because so few guys have been good so far. 

• Mark Andrews hasn't really had a huge game yet, and his current per-game target pace would be his lowest since 2020. I have faith he'll turn things around, but it is a new offense, so we can't necessarily just assume he'll dominate targets the way he has in the past. But yes, he's a buy-low candidate for sure.
• Darren Waller has just one double-digit game in his first three, but with games against the Cowboys and  49ers in his first three, the  Giants have also faced a ludicrously tough schedule so far. His 20% target share is low, but the Giants have also been in two blowouts; his target share was 22% in the one competitive game. I'd be buying.
• Writing this before Monday Night Football, Dallas Goedert  seems like the most obvious buy-low maybe at any position right now. He's been a model of efficiency since being elevated to a starting role in this offense in 2021, and I have no real reason to think that won't continue to be the case moving forward – if you don't think it will, you should probably also be fading Jalen Hurts. Buy Goedert.

For more on the state of the position for Week 4, head here. 

1. Travis Kelce @NYJ
2. TJ Hockenson @CAR
3. Mark Andrews @CLE
4. Dallas Goedert vs. WAS
5. Sam LaPorta @GB
6. George Kittle vs. ARI
7. Darren Waller vs. SEA
8. Evan Engram vs. ATL
9. Kyle Pitts @JAX
10. Zach Ertz @SF
11. David Njoku vs. BAL
12. Cole Kmet vs. DEN