Over the past 35 years, controversial economic futurist Harry S Dent has made a series of eerily ‘on the money’ calls... He predicted in advance Japan’s 1989 crash…the dotcom crash of the early 2000s…the real estate bubble a few years after that…the 2008 financial meltdown…the rise of Trump and Brexit…gold’s recent slump along with the dollar’s rally…and oil’s fall. Now, in Zero Hour, Dent makes the most important, high-stakes call of his life. If he’s right, you need hunker down…and you need to start preparing now… Dear Reader, On page 98 of my new book, Zero Hour, I make a rather bold claim: If we don’t see a worldwide financial crisis to rival the Great Depression by early 2020, ‘I’ll quit my profession and become a limo driver on the Gold Coast of Australia.’ Four fundamental cycles are about to converge. They have only done so twice in the last century. First, at the outset of the Great Depression. Second, in the early to mid-1970s. Both times an economic crisis of epic proportions swept across the world. In October 1929, on what became known as Black Thursday, the American stock market started a hellish four-day crash. And then just kept on falling… If you owned an average portfolio of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks between 1929 and 1932, you’d have suffered a life-wrecking loss of -89%. Investors around the world suffered similar losses. The question many are asking right now is this… Is the world lining up for a similar catastrophic, once-in-a-lifetime event? The 1929 crash cost Americans alone more than the cost of America’s entire First World War effort. And while the crash started in America, its ripple effects were felt profoundly here in Australia. That 80%-plus share market wipeout was devastating in the early 1930s, but back then, in investment terms, it really only affected wealthy Australians. Although, in terms of the overall economy, it affected everyone. Exports plummeted, putting catastrophic downward pressure on wages. This resulted in crippling strikes…coal mining strikes in particular brought the economy to its knees. And then came the tidal wave of layoffs. One in three Aussies found themselves out of work. Hundreds of thousands of people with no savings or work found themselves living on the streets and queuing for food. Nothing has been seen like it since in Australian history. But that could well be about to change… My Name is Harry S Dent. And This Open Letter to All Australians Contains an Urgent Warning… You may not have heard of me because, usually, my forecasts are America-centric. Although, in the 1980s I correctly predicted that the Japanese economy — then the darling of the world — would enter a slowdown that would last at least a decade. This was treated with extreme skepticism…but came to pass. In the early 1990s I predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 10,000. Again, this was looked at with extreme doubt. But it happened. I’m on record predicting both the 2000 dot-com bust and the populist wave that enabled Brexit and Donald Trump’s election. Again, both predictions were met with skepticism. So I’m no stranger to having many of my forecasts — which are primarily based on demographic cycles — being met with incredulity. Or even scorn and ridicule. I expect you might feel the same about the warning I have for you and your country, Australia. But I feel duty-bound to write this letter to you today anyway. I believe the biggest crash in history is coming to the global economy. And that will happen within two years. Between now and mid 2020. As I’m about to explain, the epicenter of this new crisis…like so many economic crises that have come before…will be the United States of America. But the flow-on effects of this looming crisis could smash over Australia like a tsunami. As I show on page 203 of my book, the ‘high-end’ economies tend to collapse the fastest and hardest in ‘Zero Hour’ events. And Australia is right up there in the top five… I believe your property market, for instance, is very much like Manhattan’s right at the dawn of the 1930s. Real estate there dropped 64%. It took until 1954 — 21 years — to return to bubble highs. Can you imagine that happening in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth? Look…if I’m right, it would hit Australians hard. Harder, perhaps, than it will hit my fellow Americans back home. I’m not going to mince my words here… I think Australia is not just heading for a recession. But a new Great Depression. That is my new forecast. I believe Australia could find itself in a period just like the 1930s, in the next two to five years. I know that sounds extreme. As Australian business confidence tumbled after the 1929 stock market wipeout, Australia racked up an incredible 32% unemployment rate. (And in an era where there were no jobless benefits…you had to simply fend for yourself…) To see a repeat of that in your near future might seem unimaginable. That’s five times your current unemployment rate. That couldn’t possibly happen in the early 2020s, could it? All I ask is that you hear me out. And then decide for yourself. Like 1929, I believe the root cause of the next great crash is going to be America. But if I’m correct, it could unleash AUSTRALIA’S worst economic catastrophe in almost 90 years. I see a wealth wipeout of epic proportions in store for Australia. It is for this reason that I’m writing you this letter now… Why? Because a new American-generated crisis — far, far greater than the subprime debacle and the dotcom mania combined — could be about to erupt. In America, it could cause the greatest social, economic and political upheaval since the American Revolution. Australia — as I demonstrate on page 210 of Zero Hour — is one of the prime bubble economies that could lose the most if this spread occurs. I expect many to laugh away this prediction. In past years, every time I speak down in Oz (and I visit frequently) the local economists and journalists attack me viciously when I tell them they’re on the verge of a crushing real estate collapse. But a curious thing has happened of late… When I spoke there in late May 2017, I found that many more local experts admitted that the country definitely has a bubble. When I did a press tour there more recently, in February and March this year, there was almost no pushback. The question just seemed to be when the bust would come, and how much it would hurt. When you see old opponents who would regularly laugh and argue at my predictions just grimacing and nodding, you know the endgame is approaching… Because my prediction of a worldwide depression, rather than just a deep recession, IS extreme. I get that. And it’s so counter to the narrative that Australia is an ‘invincible, Miracle Economy’. When I wrote in 1989, when the Dow was 2,500, that the market index would eclipse 6,000 to 8,000 by 2006, people thought I was nuts. We’d just had the 1987 share wipeout and its brutal aftermath. To mainstream analysts, there was nothing on the immediate horizon to indicate such a massive boom. But at the time I based my prediction on American consumption, driven by the Baby Boomers and emerging technologies. I was right. The doubters were wrong. However, I get that when you see the biggest global economic crisis since the Great Depression looming on the horizon, you need to give your analysis. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary research. So please do read on… What did Janet Yellen say on June 27, 2017? That we will not see another financial crisis ‘in our lifetimes’. Sounds like Irving Fisher just before the 1929 crash: ‘Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.’ There are plenty of people — a growing chorus, actually — who are now convinced the nine year central bank-driven boom is ending. And a sizeable correction is coming. But virtually NO ONE sees what I believe is REALLY in store… I believe we are about see the coming together of several cycles that caused earth-shattering events the last time they converged. Blood in the streets...in America AND Australia… That sounds like hyperbole. So I don’t blame you if you’re skeptical. All I ask is that you read my research carefully, and make your own judgment. If you find it compelling, you should consider taking several vital precautions now, or you could be in for a world of pain… Which is why I want to get a digital copy of my new book, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage, into your hands as soon as possible… I said the coming crisis is America-based. Let me explain what I mean by that… The Next American Civil War You’ve possibly been watching the events in America from the other side of the world with a growing sense of unease. Let me tell you now… The partisan Right and Left media is telling only half the story… We Americans were taught in school that the Civil War ended with Confederate General Robert Lee’s surrender at Appomattox in 1865. The reality is… The second phase of the ‘War Between the States’ has already begun. You see, ‘Civil War I’ — like First World War — was just the preamble to a second, much WIDER conflict. We may not see armed fighting with guns and tanks, at least not right away. But we ARE seeing the first rumblings of Civil War II. Antifa…Occupy Wall Street...The ‘alt right’…Charlottesville...Black Lives Matter... Recent indictments of Trump campaign officials for alleged collusion with Russia… And believe me, I think it’s going to get worse. A LOT worse. Americans are more divided than ever, which is why the 2016 US presidential election was the ugliest, most heated ever… But the election is just another symptom of the most radical polarisation in US politics since the Civil War. Look at this chart from Pew Research and you’ll see what I mean… Source: Pew Research We went from about a 10% difference in ideology between the average Democrat and Republican in 2004…to 35% just 10 years later! And between the most politically engaged, the differential is almost 55%, with the majority of each party on the extreme right or left. Now look at this map of the 2016 election. Source: Dent Research You probably didn’t need to see this to know what it says...Left and Right have hunkered down into their warring camps. But this is about MUCH more than red versus blue. It’s upper class versus lower class. It’s the American worker — white collar and blue collar — versus globalisation. It’s a scared citizenry versus terrorist organisations like ISIS. It’s young versus old over entitlements. It’s third world versus first world countries. It’s people from all walks of life saying, ‘Enough is enough!’ Check out this chart… Source: Pew Research This shows that American liberals despise Donald Trump so much that 55% say that if a friend of theirs voted for Trump, it would actually strain their friendship! But this polarisation isn’t just happening in the US. In today’s world, we’re so connected that everyone now hates almost everyone else! Ethnic minorities versus majorities…radical Islamists versus ‘infidels’…globalists versus nationalists… You name it, we’re seeing it play out almost everywhere... Terrorist incidents exploding across Europe and the US… Brexit, and a near-miss ‘Frexit’… Catalonians voting to secede from Spain… Shiites fighting Sunnis fighting Kurds in the Middle East… These aren’t isolated conflicts. They’re the beginnings of a worldwide revolution in politics, economics…everything. We’re talking top-down management…establishment and special interest politics…social engineering…monetary manipulation…wealthy elitism… This isn’t just a global civil war… It’s a global Revolutionary War! And I’ve seen it coming for decades now... What Economists and Political Elites Miss… As I said, my name is Harry Dent. Although I have an MBA from Harvard, and have consulted to numerous Fortune 100 companies, and have a record for picking every major economic event of the last 30 years…I still have to work hard to be taken seriously when making forecasts of this nature. I frequently appear in front of American viewers of Good Morning America, PBS, CNBC, CNN and Fox News. I’m accustomed to incredulous pushback from financial news anchors. But, as I say, that pushback was decidedly more muted when I visited Australia earlier this year. That tour was covered by The Sydney Morning Herald, News.com.au, Smartcompany.com.au and MacroBusiness. Even in my interview with the often-positive bull Peter Switzer on his On the Money show, I detected a lot less optimism. Old foes seemed much closer to the same page as me. And that’s telling… Still, I’m making a huge claim here. Even bigger than many of the bears out there in the news. I’m predicting a far, FAR greater global downturn than what happened after the GFC. That’s BIG. So big that it could wreck people’s futures. Change societies. But it could also create a new wealth revolution coming out of the other side (I explain more about that in my book…) But why should you listen to me? Well, those who know me know I’m not backwards in coming forward talking about my record. Yes, I’ve gotten some things wrong. For instance, if you Google my tour of Australia in 2015, you’ll see I called for a massive real estate crash then. It still hasn’t happened. Peter Switzer brought that up in our last interview. But, as I told him: ‘If you can find a single economist that has called as many major shifts like the collapse of Japan, the tech boom of the 90s, the top of the real estate market…WE CALLED THAT RIGHT ON. We called the top of the tech bubble. ‘This bubble has been harder to call…because GOVERNMENTS are primarily generating it. And governments not only put money in to keep the bubble going…when the stock market crashes 10% or 12%, the Federal Reserve just steps in and buys it to drive it back up! ‘When the Chinese has their second stock bubble burst in 2015 the Chinese government bought the stock market to drive it back up! ‘THAT’S CHEATING. This is an artificial market’. Look, I’ll say (with little humility, I’ll admit) that there is no one better than me at picking natural turns in economic cycles. There’s a reason my forecasts regularly appear in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, U.S. News and World Report, Business Week and The Wall Street Journal. But this one has been my greatest challenge. Because the bubble has gone on longer and higher than any bubble in history. That is not a reason to be skeptical of my predictions. It’s a reason for you to take them more seriously than ever. The higher a bubble goes, it makes sense that the farther it’s going to go down. That may seem overly simplistic. But that’s often how it works. I’ll admit I’m not the most orthodox economist. You see, ‘conventional’ economists tend to look at simple things like government, the Fed, jobs data etc… But I see another, much more powerful force at work... Social, demographic, political and economic cycles. You can’t see them. And you can’t touch them. Mainstream economists and their cohorts in the political establishment ignore them. But my research shows that they’re behind every major movement and crisis in history, no matter how hard governments try to stop them. In fact, cycles create those big unexpected events that some people call ‘black swans.’ Only there’s no such thing as a ‘black swan.’ This is just a convenient tag to pin on something ‘government and economic experts’ don’t see coming…because they don’t understand cycles. But I believe these cycles are behind every so-called ‘black swan’ in recent times… The Black Monday stock crash of 1987 The dismantling of the Berlin Wall (1989) The Asian financial crisis (1997) The Dot-com crash (2000) The September 11 attacks (2001) Lehman Brothers collapse (2008) Brexit and Trump’s election (2016) And when two or more cycles converge, they produce the truly epic events of history… Martin Luther and his ‘95 Theses’ (1517) The Mayflower setting sail from England (1620) The American Revolution (1765–1783) The US Civil War (1861–1865) The First World War (1914–1918) The Great Depression (1929–1939) The Second World War (1939–1945) The Great Recession (2007–2009) We’re at a Rare Moment in History Right now, three mega-cycles — or ‘Harbingers of Revolution’ — are converging in a once-every-250-year event. Very little good can come from this event. It is based mainly on four demographic and geopolitical cycles. If it plays out as we predict, it could create a ghastly global crisis. And potentially, a dark ‘Economic Winter’ in Australia. Why Australia, in particular? And what ripple effects — besides a nationwide economic crisis — is Australia going to experience? We’ll get to those shortly. First, let’s look at the historical and global convergence that Andy and I call Zero Hour. Source: Dent Research Harbinger #1 — The 28-Year Financial Crisis Cycle This cycle last bottomed in 1933, when we saw the highest unemployment in US history and the worst of the worldwide Great Depression. The next bottom hit in 1961, with twin recessions in 1960 and 1962. Then we got the recession and savings-and-loan crisis of 1990–91 (shortly after the bottom in 1989). And finally, we get… A 227% rise in the US stock market since 2009. What will happen if or when this fourth major surge since 1983 ends? Source: Yahoo Finance Harbinger #2 — The 84-Year Populist Movement Cycle This cycle is easy to see today, because we’re witnessing uprisings and riots seemingly almost daily. It started with Brexit, and the election of Donald Trump in late 2016. Devastated by one bubble bursting after the next — all while watching the wealthiest one percent run away with 50% of the money — the middle class was ripe for revolt. And here’s where it gets scary… The rise of Hitler as German chancellor in January 1933 — and Trump as US president in January 2017 — occurred exactly 84 years apart! And guess what Hitler’s whole appeal was? Make Germany great again! Sound familiar? No, I’m NOT calling Trump the next Hitler…I’m just demonstrating this cycle and how precisely it tracks populist movements — and this clearly is one. Roughly 84 years before Hitler, it was Karl Marx, who inspired populist revolts against the European aristocracy. And 84 years before that, it was the passing of the Stamp Act in 1765, which set the scene for the American Revolution 11 years later. On that note… Harbinger #3 — The 250-Year Revolutionary Cycle This last hit in the 1760s. The Boston Tea Party, the First Continental Congress, the Declaration of Independence and the Revolutionary War — along with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and modern free-market capitalism — all followed in rapid succession. These global paradigm shifts have so far occurred once every 250 years like clockwork! For example, 250 years prior, in the early 1500s, we had Martin Luther and the Protestant Reformation… More than a religious movement, the Reformation ushered in a broad social and political revolution against medieval feudalism and the dominant Catholic Church…laying the foundation for modern democracy and human rights. 250 years prior, in the late 1200s, we had the voyages of Marco Polo. Maps based on Polo’s travels to East Asia inspired Columbus to set out across the Atlantic, hoping to find a western sea route to India and China. The rest, as they say, is history. The takeaway? Each revolution builds on the last one… Which means the NEXT revolution is shaping up to potentially be epic in size and scope. Now, the theory of history repeating is as old as time itself. One of the clearest examples of cycles repeating can be observed in the Chinese Dynastic Cycle. We have written records that of three thousand years of unbroken Chinese history which shows a repetitive rise and fall of dynasties. But to be clear, cycles are not foolproof. I don’t want to give you the impression the future is written in stone. It’s not. There are no guarantees. They are a guideline. And right now we don’t just have the Revolutionary Cycle hitting, my analysis shows…WE COULD HAVE ALL THREE. A ‘perfect storm’ of major social, political, and economic convulsions at every level… A major economic collapse and a deflationary economic crisis like we last saw in the 1930s. A second real estate bust, leaving millions of Americans (and, as I’ll show you in a moment, Australians) deep underwater on their mortgages. The United States breaking into red and blue ‘common market’ zones, with some states actually seceding to form their own independent republics. (I know that seems hard to believe. But read my book and I’ll demonstrate how this is not just possible, but probable…) An entire overhaul of the global financial system. The world map redrawn to finally correct the ‘errors’ of the colonial era. A ‘bottoms-up’ revolution to the very way we do business. Goodbye top-down bureaucrats everywhere! And more changes we can’t yet imagine. What my co-author, Andrew Pancholi says is true: ‘The more cycles that arrive at the party, the rowdier it gets!’ So How Does This Help YOU? |