Dollar and Euro Slide on Rate Cut Expectations, with US PCE and Eurozone CPI in Focus
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-30-23 |
Dollar and Euro Slide on Rate Cut Expectations, with US PCE and Eurozone CPI in Focus |
Dollar and Euro are emerging as notable underperformers for the week, largely influenced by increasing market anticipation of interest rate cuts by Fed and ECB in the coming year, a sentiment that is also impacting treasury yields. In US, 10-year treasury yield, a key benchmark for market expectations, has dropped below 4.3% for the first time since September. This movement reflects the changing perceptions of investors, who are now factoring in a greater likelihood of a shift in Fed's policy. Market probabilities indicate less than a 50% chance of a rate cut by Fed in March 2024, but expectations rise to nearly 80% for May. The release of today's US PCE inflation data is eagerly awaited, as it could either confirm the market's expectations or lead to adjustments in the outlook... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.63; (P) 147.27; (R1) 147.87; More... USD/JPY is staying consolidation above 146.65 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 148.75) holds. Break of 146.65 will resume the fall from 151.89 to 100% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 144.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Oct P | 1.00% | 0.70% | 0.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Oct | 4.20% | 5.90% | 5.80% | 6.30% | | 00:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Nov | 30.8 | 23.4 | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure Q3 | 0.60% | 1.00% | 2.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 01:00 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Nov | 49.4 | 49.6 | 49.5 | | 01:00 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov | 50.2 | 51.1 | 50.6 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Oct | -6.30% | -7.00% | -6.80% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct | 0.50% | -0.80% | | 07:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Oct | 0.20% | -0.60% | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Nov | 96.2 | 95.8 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Nov | 25K | 30K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Nov | 5.80% | 5.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Oct | 7.40% | 7.40% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct | 6.50% | 6.50% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov P | 3.80% | 2.90% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov P | 3.90% | 4.20% | | 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Oct | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 3.00% | 3.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 3.50% | 3.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24) | 215K | 209K | | 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Nov | 45.4 | 44 | | 15:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Oct | -0.70% | 1.10% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -8B | -7B |
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