Euro Strong Ahead of PMI Release, Dollar Weak as 10-Yr Yield Broke 4%
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-15-23 |
Euro Strong Ahead of PMI Release, Dollar Weak as 10-Yr Yield Broke 4% |
Euro is emerging as the strongest currency for the week, bolstered by ECB's resistance to the expectations of a rate cut. The common currency will now look into today's Eurozone data. Positive surprises from there could solidify ECB's stance, and give Euro more fuel to extend recent rise. For now, Japanese Yen followed as the second strongest, supported by declining global treasury yields and in anticipation of the upcoming BoJ meeting. Australian Dollar ranked as the third strongest, driven by robust job data and an improving trade relationship with China. Conversely, Dollar remains generally weak and is on track to be the worst performer for the week. Fed's dovish turn led to sharp decline in the greenback and treasury yields, while simultaneously propelling DOW to record highs. The impact of these moves is ongoing and far from over. New Zealand Dollar ranks as the second-worst performer, with economists retracting their expectations of another rate hike by RBNZ following disappointing GDP data. Canadian Dollar also underperformed, despite a recovery in WTI crude oil prices above 70 mark. Sterling showed mixed performance despite BoE's hawkish hold. |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0905; (P) 1.0957; (R1) 1.1044; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for 1.1016 resistance. Decisive break there will will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.0447. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.1274 high. On the downside, below 1.0914 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.0722 support holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Nov | 46.7 | 42.5 | 42.9 | | 22:00 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 47.8 | 47.7 | | 22:00 | AUD | Services PMI Dec P | 47.6 | 46 | | 00:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Dec | -22 | -23 | -24 | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 47.7 | 48.2 | 48.3 | | 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Dec P | 52 | 50.8 | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Nov | 6.60% | 5.60% | 4.60% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Nov | 10.10% | 12.50% | 7.60% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Nov | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.90% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct | -0.80% | 0.20% | -1.00% | | 08:15 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 43.2 | 42.9 | | 08:15 | EUR | France Services PMI Dec P | 46 | 45.4 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 43.3 | 42.6 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Dec P | 49.8 | 49.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 44.5 | 44.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Dec P | 49 | 48.7 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 47.5 | 47.2 | | 09:30 | GBP | Services PMI Dec P | 51 | 50.9 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Oct | 10.3B | 9.2B | | 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Y/Y Nov | 260.0K | 274.7K | | 13:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Oct | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Dec | 2 | 9.1 | | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Nov | 0.30% | -0.60% | | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Nov | 79.20% | 78.90% | | 14:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Dec P | 49.1 | 49.4 | | 14:45 | USD | Services PMI Dec P | 50.5 | 50.8 |
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