Yen Leads Markets, Dollar Weakens With Reversal Risks
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-27-24 |
Yen Leads Markets, Dollar Weakens With Reversal Risks |
Yen is asserting dominance in today’s markets, benefiting from notable decline in US and European benchmark treasury yields. US 10-year yield, in particular, is seeing a renewed drop, which is gaining momentum alongside the weakening USD/JPY. This raises the risks that both could be reversing their rallies that began in mid-September. However, with reduced liquidity during the US Thanksgiving holiday, current price actions could be exaggerated, leaving markets to await next week for more definitive trend signals. Overall in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is the second-best performer today after Yen, as investors continue to digest RBNZ's latest rate projections. The central bank’s guidance has left markets divided on whether February will bring another 50bps rate cut or a more modest 25bps adjustment. Meanwhile, Euro ranks third, partly supported by hawkish remarks from a senior ECB official. Despite this, Euro’s movement still appears more like consolidation of its recent losses rather than a clear trend reversal. On the weaker side, Dollar leads the day’s losses, followed by Loonie and Aussie. Both currencies remain under pressure from trade and domestic growth concerns. Sterling and Swiss Franc are holding middle positions.... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.57; (P) 153.53; (R1) 154.07; More... USD/JPY's corrective fall from 156.74 is extending lower and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 156.74 at 150.18, but strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 153.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 156.74. However, decisive break of 150.18 will argue that whole rise from 139.57 could have completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 146.12 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct | 2.10% | 2.50% | 2.10% | | 01:00 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.75% | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Nov | -12.4 | -7.7 | | 09:30 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Dec | -23.3 | -18.8 | -18.3 | -18.4 | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 1.90% | 1.80% | 1.80% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22) | 213K | 220K | 213K | 215K | | 13:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Oct P | -99.1B | -101.6B | -108.2B | | 13:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Oct P | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Oct | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Oct | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.50% | | 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Nov | 44.9 | 41.6 | | 15:00 | USD | Personal Income M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 15:00 | USD | Personal Spending Oct | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 15:00 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 15:00 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 2.30% | 2.10% | | 15:00 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 15:00 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 15:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Oct | -1.70% | 7.40% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.3M | 0.5M | | 17:00 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -4B | -3B |
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