NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines
Action Insight Daily Report 9-6-24 |
NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines |
The August US non-farm payroll report has been interpreted as largely dovish by the markets. Job growth showed clear signs of slowing, but the slight decrease in the unemployment rate has helped ease immediate recession fears. As a result, market expectations for a 50 bps rate cut by Fed this month have now risen above 50%. Dollar is broadly sold off in response, and 10-year Treasury has a notable decline. Nevertheless, while the data points to a cooling labor market, it wasn't severe enough to suggest a sharp economic downturn. Hence, the drop in US stock futures has been mild, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious but not overly negative. There is indeed prospect of a strong bounce in major stock indexes during the rest of the session. As the week comes to a close, Japanese Yen has solidified its position as the strongest performer. It is likely to maintain its lead unless US yields stage a sharp rebound. Swiss Franc is the second strongest, slightly outperforming the Euro.... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8455; (R1) 0.8476; More… USD/CHF's fall from 0.9223 resumed by breaching 0.8399 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8332 low. decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. However, break of 0.8536 resistance will now confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8747 resistance. | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
---|
23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jul | 0.10% | 1.20% | -1.40% | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Jul P | 109.5 | 109.4 | 109 | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production sM/M Jul | -2.40% | -0.20% | 1.40% | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | 16.8B | 21.2B | 20.4B | 06:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | -5.9B | -5.7B | -6.1B | 06:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Jul | -0.50% | -0.20% | 0.80% | -6.0B | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug | 694B | 704B | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Aug | 142K | 163K | 114K | 89K | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Aug | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.30% | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Aug | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.10% | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Aug | 22.1K | 25.0K | -2.8K | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Aug | 6.60% | 6.50% | 6.40% | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Aug | 55.3 | 57.6 |
|
|
|