Daily Newsletter: Consumers Still Don't Get It When It Comes To Home Prices And Rates

All too often, when it comes to consumer surveys about the future, the results tend to reflect what has already happened as opposed to what will continue to happen. Of course, trends can remain intact, but other times, the writing is on the wall . Looking back at the start of the pandemic, consumers thought the writing was on the wall with respect to home prices according the Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey. A net of 39% of respondents thought home prices would continue to go up in early 2020. A few short months later, more were convinced that home prices would fall . From that point on, the net % of those who thought prices would rise NEVER returned to the 39% pre-pandemic high. All this despite months and months of record-setting home price appreciation. The following chart shows this journey. Focus on the black charted line and the horizontal level line at 39%: Consumers clearly thought the pandemic had turned a corner by early 2021. Covid numbers were declining and price appreciation had been so surprising that, surely, things must have topped out, right? Wrong ... By September 2021, the trend reversed course (thank you, Delta variant), and the black line started to move back in a logical direction. But even though it ticked up slightly again in the most recent survey, does it make sense for the net percentage to remain almost 10% below the pre-pandemic net percentage?

March 9, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Consumers Still Don't Get It When It Comes To Home Prices And Rates All too often, when it comes to consumer surveys about the future, the results tend to reflect what has already happened as opposed to what will continue to happen. Of course, trends can remain intact, but other times, the writing is on the wa... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Applications Bounce(d) Back as Rates Plunge(d) The news release for weekly mortgage applications may have come out today, but as with any economic report, it refers to things that happened in the past. The Mortgage Bankers Association's applications data is some of the timeliest in that r... (read more) Rob Chrisman Training & Events; Vendor Products & Tools; Conventional Conforming Updates I’m visiting with lenders in Tennessee much of this week, and a fair amount of the talk revolves around conversations with borrowers “unlocking the equity in their homes.” We’ve shifted quickly, which reminds me… What do Howard Johnson’s, Red Barn, B... (read more) Mortgage Rates Rates Inch Up to Another Multi-Year High Mortgage rates officially hit new multi-year highs in February. At the time, you'd have to go back to the first half of 2019 to see anything higher. With that being the case, any subsequent day that saw rates move any higher was also technically a new multi-year high, even if it wasn't appreciably different than those initial highs in late Febr... (read more) 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.24% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 4.24% +0.02 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 3.50% +0.02 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 3.75% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.72% +0.04 0.00 5/1 ARM 3.68% +0.06 1.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/9 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 3.50% +0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 3.89% -0.03 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 3.14% -0.01 0.70 5/1 Yr. ARM 2.98% 0.00 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/24 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 4.09% -0.06 0.44 15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% -0.08 0.46 30 Yr. Jumbo 3.79% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/9 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sharply after the start of European trading. A coordinated EU bond offering and temporary ceasefire in Ukraine were both cited as factors at the time. The bigger problem for bonds continues to be the f... (read more) UMBS 30YR 3.0 100.17 -0.33 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 3.0 100.17 -0.33 UMBS 3.5 102.05 -0.30 GNMA 3.0 100.91 -0.22 GNMA 3.5 102.38 -0.22 Pricing as of: 3/9 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 1.9497 +0.1093 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 1.674 +0.073 5 YR Treasury 1.880 +0.104 7 YR Treasury 1.932 +0.103 10 YR Treasury 1.950 +0.109 30 YR Treasury 2.326 +0.107 Pricing as of: 3/9 5:21PM EST Latest Video I'm still quite nervous about how the Fed will add to this difficult period... US can avoid recession because of strong labor market, says JP Morgan's Dav... Wells Fargo's Anna Han: Stagflation is now on people's minds The 2pm Bond Report - March 9, 2022 Around the Web The Basis Point Better mortgage fires 3,000 (35% of team), citing housing headwinds reuters Russia Says It Prefers to Achieve Ukraine Goals Via Talks CNBC Consumer inflation was likely high in February, and rising fuel prices will turn up the pressure CNBC U.S. oil prices take sudden leg downward, now off 10%, following a March rally to 13-year highs CNBC Job openings hold above 11 million, nearly 5 million more than the total unemployment level Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Reuters Stocks rebound as markets pause, oil prices cool down Fannie Mae What are the biggest costs of homeownership? (Hint: Its not what you might think) Eye on Housing Increasing Open Jobs in Construction Redfin A Record 8% of U.S. Homes Are Worth At Least $1 Million Calculated Risk Blog Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Recovers in February" Fannie Mae Mortgage costs as a share of housing costsplacing the cost of credit in broader context Redfin Two Years Later: How the Pandemic Has Rocked the U.S. Housing Market

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