Economy.com Daily Update: November 2, 2021

Today's Economy

The government scrambles to avoid a currency crisis before crucial midterm elections.

If the taper tantrum is any guide, bond market volatility could rise while the VIX barely budges.

Headline inflation in Switzerland breached 1% y/y in October.

The RBA removed its yield curve control and brought forward the likely timing of rate hikes.

Commentary

Global supply chains remain under immense pressure, posing material inflation risks.

One reason that labor supply constraints should be less binding is that wage growth is accelerating.

We remain steadfast in our forecast that the U.S. economy will return to full employment by spring 2023.

In the third quarter, consumer spending contributed only 1.1 percentage points to growth, down from 7.9 percentage points in the prior quarter.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Sep. 2021: 6.03%
The Moody’s Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate declined 19 basis points to 6.03% in September.

Switzerland
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 1.2%
Swiss inflation accelerated in October, reaching 1.2% y/y compared with 0.9% the previous month.

Switzerland
Retail Sales
Sep. 2021: 2.5% y/y
Growth in Swiss retail sales cooled in September, increasing by just 0.1% m/m compared with 1.4% m/m in August.

Austria
Employment and the Labour Market
Sep. 2021: 6.5%
Austria’s unemployment rate stood at 6.5% in September, improving from 6.9% in August.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Retail Sales
Sep. 2021: 7.3% y/y
Retail sales values in Hong Kong rose 7.3% y/y in September to HK$28 billion, after rising by 11.9% in August, due to a strengthening labour market and support from additional tranches of the government digital consumption voucher scheme.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Sep. 2021: 15.6% y/y
Chile’s economic recovery advanced in September as the domestic market strengthened.

Canada
Building Permits
Sep. 2021: 4.3% m/m
Going against the recent cooling trend in the Canadian housing market, building permitting activity picked back up in September.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Oct. 2021: 45.2%
Used-vehicle prices increased faster during October.

United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Oct. 2021: 7.27% y/y
The consumer credit market continued its strong growth in October, increasing its total outstanding balance by $101 billion to $14.9 trillion, a 0.68% monthly increase and 7.27% year-over-year growth.

United States
Housing Vacancies & Homeownership
2021Q3: 65.4%
The homeownership rate remained unchanged at 65.4% in the third quarter of 2021.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
October 29: 352.3 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Sep. 2021: 2.2%
Global semiconductor sales totaled a fresh-record high of $48.3 billion in September.